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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Wd-40 Company (XNAS:WDFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WDFC
Name:
WD-40 COMPANY (XNAS:WDFC)
Sector:
- 3381.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Garry Ridge
Total Employees:
540
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -55.94% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WD-40 COMPANY(WDFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
183.36
One Month Price Target:
$183.1
Six Month Price Target :
$181.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$180.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$182.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$184.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$174.33
This week:
$163.16
This month :
$142.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.51B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.79%
-14.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$225.29
$206.15
$141.43
$160.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$199.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$195.83
$166.75
$170.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WDFC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.46%
Comparison:
WDFC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -78.11% lower than the industry
& is -79.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WDFC
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.40%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -80.45% below industry average
Classification:
WDFC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
WDFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.39%
Monthly Volatility:
10.77%
Yearly Volatility:
37.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.93%
Weekly VaR:
-11.02%
Monthly VaR:
-22.03%
How Much Can the price of
WDFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$148.05
This translates to price declining to:
$43.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WDFC is a 55.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.35% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WDFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500---0.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.086
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.121
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.169
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.296
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.471
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.514
Beta is -116.50% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -121.45% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.59%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.41% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.034
Alpha is -74.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 214% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WDFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.014
Equity cost of capital is -87.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.58%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.58%
WACC is -82.27% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$37.89
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.59
Annual revenue growth rate is 518.54% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.41%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 496.67% higher than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.34%
Equity growth rate per share is 266.73% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.77
EBITDA per share
$7.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
WDFC
P/E Ratio:
41.42
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
80.77
P/E ratio is -48.71% lower than main peers & is 10.58% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $183.17
WDFC is 0.10% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.84
Price to sales ratio is 75.38% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.59
Price to free cash flow: 71.15
Price to free cash flow ratio is 67.28% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
18.03%
Net income growth rate is -132.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.68%
Dividend yeild: 1.64%
Previous Dividend: $0.78
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.78
Previous Dividend: $3.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.82
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.74
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.70
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.78
2021-10-14--$0.72
2021-04-15--$0.72
2022-01-13--$0.78
2021-07-15--$0.72
2021-01-14--$0.67
Dividend growth rate is -87.53% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
60.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
31.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.17
Interest coverage ratio is 86.29% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.75%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.248
Statistical significance of correlation:
WDFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -57.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.047
Kurtosis
11.264
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.444
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WDFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
206%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.16%
Operating profit margin is -106.09% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
206%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.36%
Effective tax rate is 18.94% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
34.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is 509.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.88
Current ratio is 7.38% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
41.3
Cash conversion cycle is -33.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
956.3K
Each employee generates 28% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
177.6K
Each employee generates 80% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
125.0K
Each employee generates 293% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.3K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
348.4K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WDFC
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
SSR Mining Inc. (XNAS:SSRM)
ZYMERGEN INC. (XNAS:ZY)
BALCHEM CORPORATION (XNAS:BCPC)
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY (XNAS:CENX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
516.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
250.90M
265.47M
-
147.28M
175.43M
28.15M
1.45M
176.88M
89.00K
2.45M
7.64M
95.89M
88.60M
67.48M
85.80M
18.33M
67.48M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.99M
Differed Income Tax :
738.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.89M
Change in Working Capital :
- 25698.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7980.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
580.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 947.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2434.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
11/30/21
2022
Q1
59.52M
-
59.52M
95.54M
67.88M
10.39M
233.33M
77.51M
95.72M
6.83M
-
840.00K
7.21M
188.11M
-
421.44M
35.30M
2.73M
7.94M
5.02M
38.01M
81.06M
119.45M
11.47M
141.98M
-
223.04M
20.00K
439.39M
- 27923.0K
- 213084.00K
November 30, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
427.78M
198.40M
421.44M
-
122.18M
62.7M
-
72.00K
- 2362.00K
- 400.00K
-
- 7386.00K
- 9905.00K
- 4246.00K
- 21937.00K
- 1196.00K
- 26442.00K
59.52M
85.96M
- 947.00K
- 2434.00K
- 3381.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WDFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$181.18
$178.14
$175.15
$172.21
$169.32