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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Wayfair Inc. (XNYS:W) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
W
Name:
WAYFAIR INC. (XNYS:W)
Sector:
- 266000.00K
Industry:
Internet Retail
CEO:
Mr. Niraj Shah
Total Employees:
16,681
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WAYFAIR INC.(W) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.68
One Month Price Target:
$50.48
Six Month Price Target :
$54.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$49.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.78
This week:
$36.5
This month :
$23.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.84%
-26.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.04
$64.51
$22.32
$34.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.76
$38.89
$41.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
W
Sharpe Ratio:
1.27%
Comparison:
W, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -58.52% lower than the industry
& is -44.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
W
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.66%
Yearly returns:
37.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.66% below industry average
Classification:
W, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
W has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.82%
Weekly Volatility:
13.01%
Monthly Volatility:
26.02%
Yearly Volatility:
90.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.87%
Weekly VaR:
-26.54%
Monthly VaR:
-53.08%
How Much Can the price of
W
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.83
This translates to price declining to:
$7.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
W is a 274.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 220.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
W
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.276
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.805
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-2.652
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.848
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.426
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.165
Beta is 146.91% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.105
Beta is 36.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.030
Alpha is -115.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -188% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
W
Equity cost of capital:
0.228
Equity cost of capital is 30.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-21.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.67%
WACC is -77.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$124.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-2.77
Annual revenue growth rate is 67.79% above the industry average
EPS:
-$4.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-50.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1239.96% higher than the Internet Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$37.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
W
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.79
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
W is -164.21% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -80.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-2.77
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-75.74%
Net income growth rate is -211.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-206.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-143.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
92.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
64.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 40.97% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.14
Interest coverage ratio is -130.13% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
47.07%
Annual debt growth is 60% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.511
Statistical significance of correlation:
W has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.441
Stock price is 15.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.441
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.103
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.347
Kurtosis
9.709
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.876
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
W
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.25%
Operating profit margin is -140.84% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.86%
Effective tax rate is -109.52% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is 24.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -473.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
13.3x
Current Ratio:
1.22
Current ratio is -38.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-36.7
Cash conversion cycle is -156.25% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-22.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
792.7K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 6.3K
Each employee generates -103% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 28.1K
Each employee generates -116% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 15.9K
Each employee generates -1115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
94.5K
Each employee generates -1115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
W
INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY (XNYS:IP)
NVR, Inc. (XNYS:NVR)
DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNYS:DRI)
DOMINO'S PIZZA, INC. (XNYS:DPZ)
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (XNYS:QSR)
CARMAX, INC. (XNYS:KMX)
GENUINE PARTS COMPANY (XNYS:GPC)
CHEWY, INC. (XNYS:CHWY)
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. (XNYS:RCL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�38%
Buy�21%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.22B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.53B
3.69B
-
2.00B
3.64B
1.35B
487.00M
4.13B
-
33.19M
326.69M
- 104356.00K
- 430342.00K
- 468234.00K
- 464232.00K
4.00M
- 468234.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
104.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 96000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 45000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 226000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 40000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 226000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.20B
787.00M
1.99B
270.00M
80.00M
343.00M
2.68B
1.54B
-
-
-
-
34.00M
1.58B
-
4.26B
1.17B
-
-
-
1.03B
2.20B
3.94B
26.00M
3.96B
-
6.16B
-
- 2268000.00K
- 10000.0K
374.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
13.65B
- 1904000.00K
4.26B
-
3.94B
2.7B
130.00M
- 65000.00K
- 201000.00K
-
-
- 75000.00K
-
-
- 75000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 506000.00K
1.20B
1.71B
- 226000.00K
- 40000.00K
- 266000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
W
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.02
$52.53
$62.68
$74.80
$89.25