_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Waterstone Financial, Inc. (XNAS:WSBF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WSBF
Name:
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
Sector:
142.48M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Douglas S. Gordon
Total Employees:
870
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC.(WSBF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.14
One Month Price Target:
$17.18
Six Month Price Target :
$17.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.5
This week:
$15.7
This month :
$14.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
377.90M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.14%
-9.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.12
$18.76
$14.16
$15.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.03
$15.95
$16.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WSBF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.31%
Comparison:
WSBF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -125.24% lower than the industry
& is -113.61% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WSBF
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -92.98% below industry average
Classification:
WSBF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
WSBF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.82%
Weekly Volatility:
4.08%
Monthly Volatility:
8.16%
Yearly Volatility:
28.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.74%
Weekly VaR:
-8.37%
Monthly VaR:
-16.75%
How Much Can the price of
WSBF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-58.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.61
This translates to price declining to:
$7.20
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WSBF is a 18.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.25% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -36.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WSBF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.499
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.706
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.278
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.287
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.426
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.813
Beta is -45.59% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -54.11% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.52%
Sustainable growth rate is -28.61% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.054
Alpha is -566.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -345% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WSBF
Equity cost of capital:
0.062
Equity cost of capital is -36.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.34%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.34%
WACC is -50.17% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.94
Annual revenue growth rate is 130.45% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
28.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 140.92% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 30.81%
Equity growth rate per share is -20.44% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.93
EBITDA per share
$3.96
Valuation Analysis Today of
WSBF
P/E Ratio:
8.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.58
P/E ratio is -51.64% lower than main peers & is -27.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $28.42
WSBF is -39.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.72
Price to sales ratio is -59.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.94
Price to free cash flow: 1.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -85.18% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
157.46%
Net income growth rate is 185.92% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 31.46%
Dividend yeild: 7.58%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $1.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 28.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-08--$0.20
2021-10-07--$0.20
2021-06-10--$0.50
2022-01-07--$0.50
2021-07-09--$0.20
2021-04-09--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is 19.33% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.56% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.63
Interest coverage ratio is 699.83% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 32.98%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.397
Statistical significance of correlation:
WSBF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -20.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
6.694
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.176
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WSBF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.59%
Effective tax rate is 4.82% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 18.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.31%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.2K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
103.0K
Each employee generates -54% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
62.9K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
163.8K
Each employee generates 97% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 97% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WSBF
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
SVAC
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
MAAC
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
Orion Acquisition Corp (XNAS:OHPA)
MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MOFG)
GHVI
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
225.54M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
132.03M
135.64M
3.61M
-
-
66.94M
13.52M
5.38M
89.61M
-
54.74M
70.71M
15.97M
54.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.08M
Differed Income Tax :
- 310.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
170.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 20509.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 160.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 19515.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
156.88M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
142.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 121.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 47877.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
267.58M
201.95M
469.53M
-
-
-
-
21.93M
-
-
201.95M
-
-
-
2.00B
2.00B
-
5.00M
-
-
-
5.00M
315.00M
-
315.00M
1.90B
1.59B
241.00K
272.74M
- 8137.0K
147.41M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
412.25M
2.00B
403.91M
320.00M
52.4M
6.38M
7.95M
- 33669.00K
- 155000.00K
-
- 13755.00K
- 17223.00K
- 21149.00K
- 207127.00K
-
- 98192.00K
278.53M
376.72M
142.60M
- 121.00K
142.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WSBF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.74
$18.27
$18.81
$19.37
$19.94