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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WASH
Name:
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
Sector:
37.73M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Edward Handy
Total Employees:
623
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 252.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WASHINGTON TRUST BANCORP, INC.(WASH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
50.48
One Month Price Target:
$50.7
Six Month Price Target :
$51.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.84
This week:
$44.58
This month :
$38.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
848.94M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.11%
-13.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.72
$57.12
$38.24
$43.84
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$55.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.11
$45.64
$46.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WASH
Sharpe Ratio:
0.80%
Comparison:
WASH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -35.24% lower than the industry
& is -65.10% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WASH
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.58%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -35.77% below industry average
Classification:
WASH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
WASH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.72%
Monthly Volatility:
11.44%
Yearly Volatility:
39.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -92.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.22%
Weekly VaR:
-11.68%
Monthly VaR:
-23.36%
How Much Can the price of
WASH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.93%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.22
This translates to price declining to:
$9.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WASH is a 64.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WASH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.639
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.904
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.679
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.484
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.902
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.977
Beta is -18.92% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -17.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.43% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.016
Alpha is -235.22% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -100% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WASH
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -12.04% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
13.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.79%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.79%
WACC is -24.99% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.69
Annual revenue growth rate is -40.37% below industry average
EPS:
$4.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -72.37% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.90
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 23.94%
Equity growth rate per share is -38.19% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.34
EBITDA per share
$6.53
Valuation Analysis Today of
WASH
P/E Ratio:
11.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.6
P/E ratio is 10.53% higher than main peers & is -5.54% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $51.62
WASH is -2.21% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $40.94
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.92
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.9
Price to sales ratio is -8.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.69
Price to free cash flow: 6.39
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.27%
Net income growth rate is -77.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.89%
Dividend yeild: 4.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.54
Previous Dividend: $2.14
Expected next dividend best case: $0.55
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.53
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.58%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.54
2021-12-31--$0.54
2021-06-30--$0.52
2022-03-31--$0.54
2021-09-30--$0.52
2021-03-31--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -97.54% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
21.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-22.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.98%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.54
Interest coverage ratio is 810.10% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-69.66%
Annual debt growth is -22095% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 72.50%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.486
Statistical significance of correlation:
WASH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -2.91% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
7.269
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.439
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WASH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.62%
Effective tax rate is 0.34% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is 19.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is -45.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
356.7K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
180.0K
Each employee generates -20% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
117.0K
Each employee generates -17% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
60.6K
Each employee generates -27% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -27% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WASH
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)
BMTC GROUP INC. (XTSE:GBT)
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
LAKELAND BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:LBAI)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
HOMESTREET, INC. (XNAS:HMST)
Univest Financial Corporation (XNAS:UVSP)
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
FTOC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
222.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
88.38M
90.36M
1.97M
-
-
158.15M
14.87M
4.30M
112.16M
-
72.88M
92.99M
20.10M
72.88M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.06M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
888.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 3775.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
23.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
38.56M
Investments in PP&E:
- 834.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 75357.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
224.81M
1.01B
1.24B
-
-
-
-
57.69M
63.91M
5.20M
1.01B
-
-
1.14B
6.99B
5.85B
-
-
-
-
-
-
108.85M
-
108.85M
5.44B
5.33B
1.09M
465.30M
- 79451.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
513.19M
5.85B
2.02B
108.85M
- 115957.0K
43.33M
- 4586.00K
- 37443.00K
- 287000.00K
-
-
- 9396.00K
344.88M
48.48M
-
49.60M
228.10M
178.49M
38.56M
- 834.00K
37.73M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WASH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$57.22
$60.27
$63.48
$66.86
$70.41