_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Washington Federal, Inc. (XNAS:WAFD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WAFD
Name:
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
Sector:
24.07M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Brent Beardall
Total Employees:
2,082
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 356.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC.(WAFD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.53
One Month Price Target:
$31.67
Six Month Price Target :
$32.38
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.89
This week:
$27.87
This month :
$24.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.41%
-15.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.12
$35.67
$23.94
$27.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.80
$28.51
$29.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WAFD
Sharpe Ratio:
0.05%
Comparison:
WAFD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -96.26% lower than the industry
& is -97.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WAFD
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.20%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -77.98% below industry average
Classification:
WAFD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
WAFD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.66%
Monthly Volatility:
11.32%
Yearly Volatility:
39.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.27%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.38% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.19%
Weekly VaR:
-11.60%
Monthly VaR:
-23.20%
How Much Can the price of
WAFD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.36%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.10
This translates to price declining to:
$6.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WAFD is a 63.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.41% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WAFD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.62
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.877
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.49
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.471
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.837
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.048
Beta is -23.75% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -17.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.062
Alpha is -636.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -396% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WAFD
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -11.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.15%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.15%
WACC is -29.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 7.12% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.68
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 51.23%
Equity growth rate per share is 32.31% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$26.33
EBITDA per share
$5.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
WAFD
P/E Ratio:
10.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.12
P/E ratio is -21.05% lower than main peers & is -16.53% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $34.00
WAFD is -7.26% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.14
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.45
Price to sales ratio is -19.45% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 11.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.68% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
5.57%
Net income growth rate is -89.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.30%
Dividend yeild: 2.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.94
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.37%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.24
2021-11-04--$0.23
2021-05-06--$0.23
2022-02-03--$0.24
2021-08-05--$0.23
2021-02-04--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -94.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
80.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.47%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.80%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.77
Interest coverage ratio is 475.42% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-36.30%
Annual debt growth is -11561% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 44.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.484
Statistical significance of correlation:
WAFD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -3.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
7.491
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.035
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WAFD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.18%
Effective tax rate is -1.68% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
287.2K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
157.0K
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
95.8K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.6K
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -86% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WAFD
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
WESBANCO, INC. (XNAS:WSBC)
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CLBK)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
TOWNE BANK (XNAS:TOWN)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
597.87M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
153.38M
-
259.13M
259.13M
-
-
-
598.31M
68.53M
5.25M
326.82M
-
199.43M
253.04M
53.61M
199.43M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.94M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.39M
Change in Working Capital :
- 32838.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1115.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1397.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
64.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.84M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2771.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
1.88B
1.95B
3.83B
51.75M
-
14.59B
18.47B
253.49M
303.46M
6.29M
2.27B
-
-
2.84B
22.81B
19.97B
-
-
2.73M
-
-
-
1.72B
-
1.72B
19.54B
17.82B
136.20M
1.56B
61.9M
90.72M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
-
2.15B
19.97B
4.22B
1.72B
- 160647.0K
214.04M
- 758037.00K
- 546772.00K
- 1400000.00K
-
- 2973.00K
- 18555.00K
1.73B
309.77M
-
- 210162.00K
1.88B
2.09B
26.84M
- 2771.00K
24.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WAFD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.84
$38.82
$40.91
$43.10
$45.42