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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
W.P. Carey Inc. (XNYS:WPC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
WPC
Name:
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
Sector:
235.88M
Industry:
REIT�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Jason Fox
Total Employees:
183
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -29.38% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF W.P. CAREY INC.(WPC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
83.7
One Month Price Target:
$84.03
Six Month Price Target :
$85.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$79.54
This week:
$74.39
This month :
$65.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
207.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.02%
-17.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.02
$94.17
$64.38
$73.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.40
$76.09
$78.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
WPC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.11%
Comparison:
WPC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 89.24% higher than the industry
& is -51.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
WPC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.72%
Yearly returns:
5.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 57.88% above industry average
Classification:
WPC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
WPC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.44%
Weekly Volatility:
5.45%
Monthly Volatility:
10.91%
Yearly Volatility:
37.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.97%
Weekly VaR:
-11.12%
Monthly VaR:
-22.24%
How Much Can the price of
WPC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-77.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$67.58
This translates to price declining to:
$19.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
WPC is a 56.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 34.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
WPC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.656
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.928
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.386
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.665
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.875
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.959
Beta is -26.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.109
Beta is -36.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.006
Alpha is -111.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 40% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
WPC
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -25.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.36%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.23%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.23%
WACC is -22.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.26
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.76% below industry average
EPS:
$2.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1904.26% higher than the REIT�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.84%
Equity growth rate per share is -3.60% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$32.66
EBITDA per share
$6.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
WPC
P/E Ratio:
30.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.26
P/E ratio is 4.22% higher than main peers & is -27.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $115.28
WPC is -27.40% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $69.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $54.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.69
Price to sales ratio is 61.58% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.26
Price to free cash flow: 16.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is 45.89% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-32.93%
Net income growth rate is 903.67% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 39.42%
Dividend yeild: 5.05%
Previous Dividend: $1.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.06
Previous Dividend: $4.22
Expected next dividend best case: $1.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.20%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$1.06
2021-12-30--$1.06
2021-06-29--$1.05
2022-03-30--$1.06
2021-09-29--$1.05
2021-03-30--$1.05
Dividend growth rate is -98.38% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
85.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.73
Interest coverage ratio is 265.61% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.64
Statistical significance of correlation:
WPC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.573
Stock price is 11.76% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.573
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
18.197
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.332
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
WPC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
47.37%
Operating profit margin is 156.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.46%
Effective tax rate is 722.45% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is 97.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is 105.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.28
Current ratio is -89.27% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
235.4
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
7.5M
Each employee generates -11% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
7.0M
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.8M
Each employee generates -30% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
83.9M
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
WPC
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
VNO-PM
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (XNYS:MPW)
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (XNYS:AMH)
MAA-PI
IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED (XNYS:IRM)
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED (XNYS:JLL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
129.06M
1.24B
-
110.22M
110.22M
-
481.06M
591.28M
-
191.24M
551.27M
1.29B
648.46M
515.35M
545.25M
29.78M
515.35M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
130.78M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1242.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.83M
Change in Working Capital :
- 21422.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 37055.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
235.88M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 16534.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
205.40M
-
205.40M
13.59M
-
-
219.00M
-
899.60M
3.23B
339.37M
-
10.88B
15.35B
-
15.57B
565.97M
-
-
-
206.23M
772.20M
6.78B
181.24M
7.10B
-
7.87B
192.00K
- 2274619.00K
- 184988.0K
10.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
720.34M
7.69B
15.57B
-
6.78B
6.6B
65.00M
- 277520.00K
- 229054.00K
- 211327.00K
178.99M
-
- 203131.00K
271.16M
35.70M
- 1844.00K
40.68M
258.63M
217.95M
235.88M
-
235.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
WPC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$99.16
$103.87
$108.80
$113.97
$119.39