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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vse Corporation (XNAS:VSEC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VSEC
Name:
VSE CORPORATION (XNAS:VSEC)
Sector:
- 19443.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. John Cuomo
Total Employees:
2,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -132.75% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VSE CORPORATION(VSEC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.27
One Month Price Target:
$40.58
Six Month Price Target :
$42.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.46
This week:
$33.98
This month :
$27.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
505.64M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.49%
-23.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.33
$47.34
$27.21
$33.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.11
$35.14
$36.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VSEC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.57%
Comparison:
VSEC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 44.80% higher than the industry
& is -31.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VSEC
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 44.30% above industry average
Classification:
VSEC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
VSEC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.43%
Weekly Volatility:
7.68%
Monthly Volatility:
15.35%
Yearly Volatility:
53.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.04%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.99%
Weekly VaR:
-15.63%
Monthly VaR:
-31.25%
How Much Can the price of
VSEC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$29.43
This translates to price declining to:
$6.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VSEC is a 120.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VSEC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.819
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.159
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.843
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.56
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.796
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.334
Beta is 1.51% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is 34.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.78%
Sustainable growth rate is -96.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.026
Alpha is 569.79% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 168% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VSEC
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is 23.66% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.03%
WACC is 13.84% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$63.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.59% below industry average
EPS:
$0.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-42.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -666.98% lower than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -10230.33% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$24.70
EBITDA per share
$3.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
VSEC
P/E Ratio:
17.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.86
P/E ratio is 50.08% higher than main peers & is -62.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $32.89
VSEC is 22.42% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $10.04
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.40
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.63
Price to sales ratio is -93.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.22
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-80.32%
Net income growth rate is -2753.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.01%
Dividend yeild: 0.94%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.10
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/09/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-03--$0.10
2021-11-02--$0.09
2021-04-27--$0.09
2022-01-25--$0.10
2021-07-13--$0.09
2021-01-26--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -108.40% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
74.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
77.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.80%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.96
Interest coverage ratio is -52.43% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.32%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 22.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.378
Statistical significance of correlation:
VSEC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -30.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
7.182
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.093
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VSEC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
21%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.92%
Operating profit margin is -100.59% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
21%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.64%
Effective tax rate is -21.47% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -76.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
3.02
Current ratio is -4.54% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45.8
Cash conversion cycle is -92.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
14.38%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
326.8K
Each employee generates -5% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
20.0K
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.6K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.8K
Each employee generates 235% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
178.5K
Each employee generates 235% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VSEC
KIMBALL ELECTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:KE)
GEFEN INTERNATIONAL A.I. LTD (XASX:GFN)
RILYH
Tecnoglass Inc (XNYS:TGLS)
GSHT
TITAN MACHINERY INC. (XNAS:TITN)
BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:BBSI)
AERSALE CORPORATION (XNAS:ASLE)
EAGLE BULK SHIPPING INC. (XNAS:EGLE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
817.11M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
769.86M
47.25M
-
-
4.49M
-
18.93M
23.42M
-
12.65M
26.20M
50.03M
23.83M
9.10M
11.18M
2.08M
9.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.55M
Differed Income Tax :
1.18M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.31M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33450.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7371.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18174.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1269.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
498.00K
-
498.00K
115.17M
332.02M
26.97M
474.66M
70.54M
248.84M
103.53M
-
-
23.41M
446.32M
-
920.97M
94.92M
14.16M
-
-
47.96M
157.05M
316.02M
13.77M
340.14M
-
497.18M
638.00K
333.32M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
793.28M
423.79M
920.97M
-
330.18M
329.7M
-
2.66M
1.39M
- 93005.00K
-
-
- 1275.00K
111.04M
16.76M
-
- 20.00K
498.00K
518.00K
- 18174.00K
- 1269.00K
- 19443.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VSEC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.15
$33.19
$36.21
$39.50
$43.10