_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vornado Realty Trust (XNYS:VNO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VNO
Name:
VORNADO REALTY TRUST (XNYS:VNO)
Sector:
171.01M
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. Steven Roth
Total Employees:
3,224
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -18.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VORNADO REALTY TRUST(VNO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.13
One Month Price Target:
$26.32
Six Month Price Target :
$27.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.42
This week:
$22.3
This month :
$18.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
191.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.4%
-24.3%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.08
$30.52
$18.18
$21.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.60
$22.89
$23.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VNO
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.96%
Comparison:
VNO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 28.28% higher than the industry
& is -229.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VNO
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.42%
Monthly returns:
-1.69%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 49.04% above industry average
Classification:
VNO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
VNO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.15%
Weekly Volatility:
7.04%
Monthly Volatility:
14.08%
Yearly Volatility:
48.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.55%
Weekly VaR:
-14.64%
Monthly VaR:
-29.28%
How Much Can the price of
VNO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.11
This translates to price declining to:
$3.92
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VNO is a 106.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VNO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.746
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.055
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.49
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.764
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.891
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.722
Beta is 75.23% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is 27.96% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.321
Alpha is 36.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2041% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VNO
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 19.08% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
30.08%
After-tax cost of debt:
23.76%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
23.76%
WACC is 102.34% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-0.59
Annual revenue growth rate is 757.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-68.04%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -686.61% lower than the REIT�Office industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.59
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -11.98%
Equity growth rate per share is 26.99% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$4.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
VNO
P/E Ratio:
39.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.84
P/E ratio is 111.00% higher than main peers & is -35.53% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $39.46
VNO is -33.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $157.23
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $125.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.03
Price to sales ratio is -53.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-0.59
Price to free cash flow: 7.29
Price to free cash flow ratio is -19.35% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-61.02%
Net income growth rate is -221.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 8.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.53
Previous Dividend: $2.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.88
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.68
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 9.96%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.53
2021-11-05--$0.53
2021-05-07--$0.53
2022-01-28--$0.53
2021-08-06--$0.53
2021-01-29--$0.53
Dividend growth rate is -186.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
154.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
-3262.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 1330.88% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.9
Interest coverage ratio is -203.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
21.45%
Annual debt growth is -563% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.584
Statistical significance of correlation:
VNO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is -6.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.075
Kurtosis
13.912
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.345
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VNO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.07%
Operating profit margin is 16.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.21%
Effective tax rate is -139.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -32.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is 272.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
0.0x
Current Ratio:
2.75
Current ratio is -241.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-111.8
Cash conversion cycle is -444.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
512.2K
Each employee generates -78% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
263.4K
Each employee generates -85% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
56.4K
Each employee generates -91% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
53.0K
Each employee generates 35% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
46.4K
Each employee generates 35% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VNO
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
KIM-PM
AMH-PE
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
AMH-PH
KIM-PL
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
821.86M
829.50M
-
131.58M
131.58M
-
316.99M
448.57M
3.20M
217.57M
454.83M
849.26M
380.94M
181.93M
228.87M
- 5069.00K
181.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
122.27M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
13.16M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17787.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
26.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
171.01M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
973.86M
645.36M
1.62B
-
-
-
1.62B
-
-
149.61M
-
-
-
149.61M
15.72B
1.77B
541.83M
723.43M
-
46.24M
- 723432.00K
588.06M
-
9.72B
9.72B
-
10.31B
7.65M
- 3052842.00K
51.8M
9.18B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.39B
6.18B
16.49B
-
723.43M
- 250426.0K
-
- 794635.00K
- 794635.00K
-
-
- 645920.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.93B
171.01M
-
171.01M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VNO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.72
$22.48
$24.39
$26.46
$28.71