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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vonage Holdings Corp. (XNAS:VG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VG
Name:
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
Sector:
20.45M
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Alan Masarek
Total Employees:
2,082
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -67.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP.(VG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.99
One Month Price Target:
$21.06
Six Month Price Target :
$21.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.69
This week:
$18.09
This month :
$15.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.39B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
256.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.%
-19.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.00
$24.17
$14.98
$17.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.64
$18.73
$19.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VG
Sharpe Ratio:
6.44%
Comparison:
VG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 562.74% higher than the industry
& ratio is 182.71% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VG
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.05%
Monthly returns:
4.19%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 182.70% above industry average
Classification:
VG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.18
Statistical test of Returns:
VG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.96%
Monthly Volatility:
13.92%
Yearly Volatility:
48.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.18%
Weekly VaR:
-13.82%
Monthly VaR:
-27.64%
How Much Can the price of
VG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.36
This translates to price declining to:
$3.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VG is a 95.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.70% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.655
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.927
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.336
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.712
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.769
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.075
Beta is -42.97% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -25.08% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.429
Alpha is 375.77% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2730% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VG
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -16.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.78%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.78%
WACC is 7.43% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.59
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.36
Annual revenue growth rate is -92.44% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -68.82% lower than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.36
-
-
Debt per share
$1.97
EBITDA per share
$0.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
VG
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
231.32
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
VG is -544.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.75
Price to sales ratio is -40.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.36
Price to free cash flow: 58.62
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-166.17%
Net income growth rate is -140.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
86.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.20% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.01
Interest coverage ratio is 91.86% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
122.35%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.422
Statistical significance of correlation:
VG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -8.62% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.015
Kurtosis
15.882
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.705
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.42%
Operating profit margin is -145.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.96%
Effective tax rate is -81.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is 86.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1536.95% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.75
Current ratio is -53.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
17.4
Cash conversion cycle is -75.42% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-70.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
689.2K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
35.7K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 19.8K
Each employee generates -119% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.8K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
556.8K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VG
IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:IRDM)
ANGI INC. (XNAS:ANGI)
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NXST)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
ZYNGA INC. (XNAS:ZNGA)
PLAYTIKA HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:PLTK)
iQIYI, Inc. (XNAS:IQ)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.43B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
720.11M
714.84M
-
309.05M
641.67M
332.62M
93.56M
735.23M
-
24.70M
93.56M
74.41M
- 20394.00K
- 41243.00K
- 43855.00K
- 2612.00K
- 41243.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.20M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4302.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
29.04M
Change in Working Capital :
651.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 134.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 8539.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.41M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
40.87M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
15.72M
-
15.72M
145.90M
-
61.60M
223.21M
52.38M
612.21M
259.91M
-
122.00M
112.75M
1.16B
-
1.38B
57.38M
10.98M
32.33M
57.17M
171.46M
296.99M
505.16M
5.01M
510.17M
-
807.16M
334.00K
- 684855.00K
15.6M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.46B
575.30M
1.38B
-
516.14M
500.4M
-
- 20417.00K
- 20417.00K
- 10000.00K
-
-
-
- 14073.00K
- 24073.00K
1.20M
- 2418.00K
17.89M
20.31M
40.87M
- 20417.00K
20.45M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.97
$9.54
$9.93
$10.34
$10.76