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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vistra Corp. (XNYS:VST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VST
Name:
VISTRA CORP. (XNYS:VST)
Sector:
218.00M
Industry:
Utilities�Independent Power Producers
CEO:
Mr. Curtis Morgan
Total Employees:
5,060
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VISTRA CORP.(VST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.96
One Month Price Target:
$25.09
Six Month Price Target :
$25.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.57
This week:
$21.84
This month :
$18.73
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
416.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.08%
-24.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.43
$28.46
$18.49
$21.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.86
$22.41
$23.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VST
Sharpe Ratio:
1.32%
Comparison:
VST, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.66% higher than the industry
& is -42.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VST
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.90%
Yearly returns:
10.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.46% above industry average
Classification:
VST, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
VST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.74%
Weekly Volatility:
6.13%
Monthly Volatility:
12.26%
Yearly Volatility:
42.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.59%
Weekly VaR:
-12.49%
Monthly VaR:
-24.98%
How Much Can the price of
VST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.57
This translates to price declining to:
$3.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VST is a 76.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.768
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.087
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.335
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.618
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.606
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.618
Beta is 46.20% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.865
Beta is 4.39% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.014
Alpha is 7.42% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 92% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VST
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is 2.87% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.13%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.26%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.26%
WACC is -2.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -74.83% below industry average
EPS:
$0.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.79
-
-
Debt per share
$25.82
EBITDA per share
$7.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
VST
P/E Ratio:
28.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.71
P/E ratio is 96.32% higher than main peers & is 574.96% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $3.81
VST is 555.69% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.92
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.87
Price to sales ratio is 36.07% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
Price to free cash flow: 13.98
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2337.89%
Net income growth rate is 43.85% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.91%
Dividend yeild: 2.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.65
Expected next dividend best case: $0.19
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.66%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-21--$0.18
2021-12-15--$0.15
2021-06-15--$0.15
2022-03-21--$0.17
2021-09-15--$0.15
2021-03-16--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -10.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
147.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
141.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.32
Interest coverage ratio is 185.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2110.64%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.519
Statistical significance of correlation:
VST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -6.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.08
Kurtosis
13.704
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.226
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.49%
Operating profit margin is -286.29% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Effective Tax Rate:
-14.99%
Effective tax rate is -143.27% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -80.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.36% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.11
Current ratio is 0.39% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.7
Cash conversion cycle is -64.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
587.2K
Each employee generates -27% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
95.7K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.1K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.3M
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VST
NISOURCE INC. (XNYS:NI)
NISOURCE INC. (XNYS:NI)
KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION (XNYS:KEP)
Enel Americas SA (OTCM:ENIAY)
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (XNYS:AQN)
BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:BEP)
UGI CORPORATION (XNYS:UGI)
CMS-PB
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (OTCM:HNPIY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.31B
3.69B
-
-
1.08B
-
1.76B
2.84B
-
470.00M
2.08B
2.97B
779.00M
484.00M
427.00M
- 64000.00K
484.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
542.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
14.00M
Change in Working Capital :
47.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
266.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
275.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
591.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 103000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.02B
-
1.02B
1.84B
546.00M
7.51B
10.91B
12.93B
2.58B
2.16B
1.95B
1.40B
901.00M
21.92B
-
32.83B
1.28B
629.00M
109.00M
-
7.95B
9.87B
10.75B
4.92B
15.67B
-
25.53B
5.00M
- 2363000.00K
- 16000.0K
7.67B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.15B
7.30B
32.83B
-
11.38B
10.4B
98.00M
- 475000.00K
- 480000.00K
- 132000.00K
-
- 710000.00K
- 77000.00K
506.00M
- 413000.00K
-
- 302000.00K
1.06B
1.36B
591.00M
- 373000.00K
218.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.24
$27.83
$29.52
$31.31
$33.21