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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Visteon Corporation (XNAS:VC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VC
Name:
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
Sector:
- 42000.00K
Industry:
Auto Parts
CEO:
Mr. Sachin Lawande
Total Employees:
10,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -38.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VISTEON CORPORATION(VC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
118
One Month Price Target:
$119.17
Six Month Price Target :
$125.04
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$132.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$117.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$118.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$109.94
This week:
$99.98
This month :
$81.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.31B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.5%
-17.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$155.38
$138.14
$80.62
$97.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$132.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.86
$103.42
$107.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.44%
Comparison:
VC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 149.18% higher than the industry
& ratio is 7.05% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VC
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.82%
Yearly returns:
9.58%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 128.19% above industry average
Classification:
VC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
VC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.53%
Monthly Volatility:
15.07%
Yearly Volatility:
52.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.83%
Weekly VaR:
-15.27%
Monthly VaR:
-30.54%
How Much Can the price of
VC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$87.37
This translates to price declining to:
$17.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VC is a 115.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 84.64% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 19.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.97
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.372
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.133
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.752
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.801
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.43
Beta is 24.18% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.212
Beta is 46.49% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -62.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.065
Alpha is -448.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 416% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VC
Equity cost of capital:
0.153
Equity cost of capital is 33.70% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.62%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.62%
WACC is 39.17% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$101.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.17
Annual revenue growth rate is -106.89% below industry average
EPS:
$1.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-16.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -342.13% lower than the Auto Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 579.01% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.36
EBITDA per share
$6.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
VC
P/E Ratio:
41.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.41
P/E ratio is 205.92% higher than main peers & is 92.16% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $35.02
VC is 236.97% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.17
Price to sales ratio is -49.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.17
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-73.57%
Net income growth rate is -298.15% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.2
Interest coverage ratio is -55.77% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.50%
Annual debt growth is -120% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.458
Statistical significance of correlation:
VC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.534
Stock price is -14.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.534
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.027
Kurtosis
2.653
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.051
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
35%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.92%
Operating profit margin is -69.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
35%
Effective Tax Rate:
33.33%
Effective tax rate is 39.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -77.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.71
Current ratio is -14.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6
Cash conversion cycle is -89.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
284.5K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.2K
Each employee generates -69% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.7K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.2K
Each employee generates -163% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
79.2K
Each employee generates -163% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VC
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (XNAS:CBRL)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:DORM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.85B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.59B
257.00M
-
-
174.00M
-
-
174.00M
2.00M
10.00M
108.00M
192.00M
83.00M
47.00M
81.00M
27.00M
47.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 78000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 38000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 21000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
402.00M
-
402.00M
637.00M
331.00M
81.00M
1.45B
507.00M
50.00M
66.00M
58.00M
48.00M
63.00M
792.00M
-
2.24B
539.00M
28.00M
27.00M
59.00M
223.00M
849.00M
460.00M
237.00M
752.00M
-
1.60B
1.00M
1.69B
- 225000.0K
- 921000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.76B
541.00M
2.14B
-
488.00M
86.0M
-
- 20000.00K
- 21000.00K
-
-
-
-
- 4000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 50000.00K
405.00M
455.00M
- 21000.00K
- 21000.00K
- 42000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$101.15
$113.22
$126.73
$141.85
$158.78