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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPCE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SPCE
Name:
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPCE)
Sector:
- 67824.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. George Thomas Whitesides
Total Employees:
804
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 868.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS, INC.(SPCE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.72
One Month Price Target:
$5.75
Six Month Price Target :
$5.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.66
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.96
This week:
$4.02
This month :
$2.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
258.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.87%
-23.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.25
$7.63
$2.19
$3.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.75
$4.33
$4.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SPCE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.96%
Comparison:
SPCE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 80.90% higher than the industry
& is -13.90% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SPCE
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.69%
Monthly returns:
2.75%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 215.87% above industry average
Classification:
SPCE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
SPCE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.55%
Weekly Volatility:
14.65%
Monthly Volatility:
29.30%
Yearly Volatility:
101.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.32%
Weekly VaR:
-29.78%
Monthly VaR:
-59.56%
How Much Can the price of
SPCE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-51%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.80
This translates to price declining to:
$0.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SPCE is a 320.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 260.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 107.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SPCE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.753
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.065
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.504
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.661
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.113
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1
Beta is -21.93% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -22.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.245
Alpha is 6103.85% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1558% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SPCE
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -15.40% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.47%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.47%
WACC is -24.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.97
-
EPS:
-$1.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 25.25% higher than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.60
EBITDA per share
-$1.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
SPCE
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.86
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
SPCE is -109.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
409.82
Price to sales ratio is 4210.20% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.97
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-361.00%
Net income growth rate is -12024.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-13.85%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-122.16
Interest coverage ratio is -1568.88% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -209% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.396
Statistical significance of correlation:
SPCE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -26.94% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.187
Kurtosis
4.124
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.85
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SPCE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
372%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-9129.05%
Operating profit margin is 1734.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
372%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.02%
Effective tax rate is -100.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-42.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is -630.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-23.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -647.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
6.65
Current ratio is 109.91% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2578.6
Cash conversion cycle is -547.69% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.5K
Each employee generates -99% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 375.9K
Each employee generates -1103% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 393.4K
Each employee generates -6218% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 84.4K
Each employee generates 3533% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
500.7K
Each employee generates 3533% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -5.91%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3300.73% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SPCE
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPR)
SCHNEIDER NATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:SNDR)
JOHN BEAN TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:JBT)
HEXCEL CORPORATION (XNYS:HXL)
COLFAX UNT (XNYS:CFXA)
AL-PA
NAMVIET JOINT - STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:NAV)
PARSONS CORPORATION (XNYS:PSN)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.61M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
297.00K
3.31M
164.84M
-
165.27M
-
2.85M
332.96M
1.47M
2.47M
11.50M
- 302226.00K
- 329650.00K
- 316262.00K
- 316201.00K
61.00K
- 316262.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.85M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
10.90M
Change in Working Capital :
12.77M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
9.23M
Other Non-Cash Items:
489.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 66051.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 204898.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
601.46M
265.86M
867.32M
-
29.47M
52.79M
949.58M
47.48M
-
-
314.14M
-
40.94M
402.56M
-
1.35B
9.71M
-
-
100.09M
33.08M
142.88M
414.16M
43.01M
457.16M
-
600.05M
26.00K
- 1216700.00K
- 7674.0K
1.98B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
333.26M
752.10M
1.35B
580.00M
414.16M
- 187309.0K
-
- 1773.00K
- 206671.00K
- 34.00K
-
-
-
359.55M
359.52M
-
86.80M
636.83M
550.03M
- 66051.00K
- 1773.00K
- 67824.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SPCE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.04
$6.36
$6.69
$7.04
$7.41