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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Viper Energy Partners Unt (XNAS:VNOM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VNOM
Name:
VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:VNOM)
Sector:
135.84M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Travis Stice
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT(VNOM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.58
One Month Price Target:
$30.8
Six Month Price Target :
$31.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.02
This week:
$24.87
This month :
$19.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.66%
-44.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.43
$36.96
$18.73
$24.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.18
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.01
$25.97
$27.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VNOM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.81%
Comparison:
VNOM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1.81% lower than the industry
& ratio is 23.43% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VNOM
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.63%
Monthly returns:
2.50%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.72% below industry average
Classification:
VNOM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
VNOM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.13%
Weekly Volatility:
9.23%
Monthly Volatility:
18.47%
Yearly Volatility:
63.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -28.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.36%
Weekly VaR:
-18.68%
Monthly VaR:
-37.37%
How Much Can the price of
VNOM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.91
This translates to price declining to:
$4.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VNOM is a 163.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 125.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VNOM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.742
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.049
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.277
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.857
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.037
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.038
Beta is -37.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is -11.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.181
Alpha is 3.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1153% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VNOM
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is -8.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.93%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.93%
WACC is 18.17% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -40.45% below industry average
EPS:
$1.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -574.24% lower than the Oil & Gas Midstream industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -26.35%
Equity growth rate per share is 1235.39% higher than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
VNOM
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.22
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $18.81
VNOM is 62.58% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.41
Price to sales ratio is 95.03% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.82
Price to free cash flow: 22.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-57.46%
Net income growth rate is -66.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 101.72%
Dividend yeild: 6.05%
Previous Dividend: $0.67
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.67
Previous Dividend: $1.85
Expected next dividend best case: $0.84
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.31
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 31.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.67
2021-11-09--$0.38
2021-05-12--$0.25
2022-03-03--$0.47
2021-08-11--$0.33
2021-03-03--$0.14
Dividend growth rate is -99.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
24.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.22
Interest coverage ratio is 17.37% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
39.79%
Annual debt growth is 1914% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.18%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.484
Statistical significance of correlation:
VNOM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is 4.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.068
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.164
Kurtosis
23.805
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.821
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VNOM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
302%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
75.02%
Operating profit margin is 269.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
302%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.13%
Effective tax rate is -93.82% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.00%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -23.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.68
Current ratio is 114.32% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
73.6
Cash conversion cycle is 24.23% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VNOM
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REGI)
PDC ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PDCE)
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
NBLX
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (XNAS:NESR)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�29%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
609.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
145.29M
463.94M
-
7.53M
7.53M
-
- 613.00K
6.92M
-
35.83M
105.51M
223.02M
457.02M
77.56M
364.98M
4.12M
77.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 29097.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 31980.00K
Other Working Capital:
45.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
36.89M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
135.84M
Investments in PP&E:
2.62M
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
33.07M
-
33.07M
102.69M
-
944.00K
136.70M
2.86B
-
-
-
-
3.64M
2.86B
-
3.00B
14.00K
-
7.07M
-
37.09M
37.10M
721.01M
-
721.01M
-
758.11M
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
152.21M
-
758.11M
-
721.01M
687.9M
-
29.34M
31.96M
- 100000.00K
-
- 39260.00K
- 78897.00K
43.98M
- 174177.00K
-
- 6382.00K
33.07M
39.45M
135.84M
-
135.84M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VNOM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.18
$31.68
$34.40
$37.35
$40.56