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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VFF
Name:
Village Farms International, Inc. (XNAS:VFF)
Sector:
- 14900.00K
Industry:
Farm Products
CEO:
Mr. Michael DeGiglio
Total Employees:
1,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 39.16% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC.(VFF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.56
One Month Price Target:
$2.6
Six Month Price Target :
$2.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.29
This week:
$1.95
This month :
$1.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
221.40M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
88.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.23%
-24.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.83
$3.25
$1.29
$1.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.94
$2.05
$2.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VFF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.01%
Comparison:
VFF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -100.65% lower than the industry
& is -100.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VFF
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.16%
Yearly returns:
10.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -81.74% below industry average
Classification:
VFF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
VFF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.21%
Weekly Volatility:
11.64%
Monthly Volatility:
23.29%
Yearly Volatility:
80.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.69%
Weekly VaR:
-23.89%
Monthly VaR:
-47.79%
How Much Can the price of
VFF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.48
This translates to price declining to:
$0.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VFF is a 237.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 188.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 81.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VFF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.497
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.117
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.85
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.253
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.878
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.903
Beta is 246.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.117
Beta is 180.05% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.226
Alpha is -269810.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1439% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VFF
Equity cost of capital:
0.246
Equity cost of capital is 127.55% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
22.39%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.83%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.83%
WACC is 130.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -113.36% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.63
EBITDA per share
$0.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
VFF
P/E Ratio:
1652.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
53.99
P/E ratio is 2960.51% higher than main peers & is 4204.79% higher than the industry
-
VFF is -151.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.79
Price to sales ratio is -39.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.54
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-4.73%
Net income growth rate is -80.82% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.38
Interest coverage ratio is -89.36% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.37%
Annual debt growth is -61% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.24%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.438
Statistical significance of correlation:
VFF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -3.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.129
Kurtosis
3.226
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.591
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VFF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.14%
Operating profit margin is -221.08% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Effective Tax Rate:
29.05%
Effective tax rate is -41.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -127.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -135.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.38
Current ratio is -49.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
75.4
Cash conversion cycle is 344.25% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
158.8K
Each employee generates -80% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.1K
Each employee generates -96% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4.6K
Each employee generates -117% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.3K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
222.7K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VFF
PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORPORATION (XNAS:PRDO)
VITAL FARMS, INC. (XNAS:VITL)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCP)
THE ANDERSONS, INC. (XNAS:ANDE)
SPARTANNASH COMPANY (XNAS:SPTN)
JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON, INC. (XNAS:JBSS)
ABCD
CRESUD INC. (XNAS:CRESY)
SunOpta Inc. (XNAS:STKL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
285.78M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
233.00M
52.78M
-
61.76M
61.76M
-
-
61.76M
233.00K
2.78M
12.61M
3.82M
- 8986.00K
- 8214.00K
- 11542.00K
- 3353.00K
- 8214.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.13M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2062.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
964.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 5091.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 5091.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 59.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 9637.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5263.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
34.62M
-
34.62M
43.28M
79.61M
17.47M
174.98M
227.81M
119.60M
26.51M
2.11M
18.68M
6.09M
400.80M
-
575.78M
24.00M
21.34M
9.24M
-
28.17M
73.51M
56.12M
2.08M
79.45M
-
152.95M
365.74M
20.26M
10.2M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
294.77M
406.56M
559.51M
-
77.45M
42.8M
-
- 3442.00K
- 8705.00K
- 1284.00K
-
-
-
2.30M
1.01M
96.00K
- 17234.00K
41.43M
58.67M
- 9637.00K
- 5263.00K
- 14900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VFF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.11
$3.76
$4.56
$5.51
$6.67