_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:VCTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VCTR
Name:
VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VCTR)
Sector:
73.64M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. David Brown
Total Employees:
485
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -86.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VICTORY CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC.(VCTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.66
One Month Price Target:
$26.83
Six Month Price Target :
$27.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.14
This week:
$23.27
This month :
$19.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
68.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.39%
-15.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.69
$30.45
$19.63
$22.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.71
$23.91
$24.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VCTR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.22%
Comparison:
VCTR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 175.91% higher than the industry
& is -2.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VCTR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.36%
Monthly returns:
1.42%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 85.70% above industry average
Classification:
VCTR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
VCTR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.80%
Weekly Volatility:
6.27%
Monthly Volatility:
12.54%
Yearly Volatility:
43.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.05%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -98.13% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.69%
Weekly VaR:
-12.72%
Monthly VaR:
-25.44%
How Much Can the price of
VCTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.88
This translates to price declining to:
$3.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VCTR is a 79.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.90% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VCTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.978
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.384
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.603
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.527
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.799
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.442
Beta is -22.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -34.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
30.71%
Sustainable growth rate is 8.94% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is -212.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 397% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VCTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -26.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.89%
WACC is -3.20% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -3.62% below industry average
EPS:
$3.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
39.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 43.61% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.54
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -573.19% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.49
EBITDA per share
$5.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
VCTR
P/E Ratio:
6.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.96
P/E ratio is -33.05% lower than main peers & is -58.70% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $62.01
VCTR is -57.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.01
Price to sales ratio is -70.65% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.85
Price to free cash flow: 7.54
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
326.20%
Net income growth rate is 124.38% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.11%
Dividend yeild: 3.08%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 18.40%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.25
2021-12-09--$0.17
2021-06-09--$0.12
2022-03-09--$0.25
2021-09-09--$0.15
2021-03-09--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is 233.25% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
107.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
103.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.1
Interest coverage ratio is -72.92% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
46.67%
Annual debt growth is -775% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.406
Statistical significance of correlation:
VCTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -29.52% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.001
Kurtosis
5.253
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.408
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VCTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
215%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.50%
Operating profit margin is -9.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
215%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.61%
Effective tax rate is -15.59% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is 14.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is 89.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -89.65% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-22.7
Cash conversion cycle is -102.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.9M
Each employee generates 35% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
842.8K
Each employee generates -211% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
586.5K
Each employee generates -147% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
151.8K
Each employee generates -227% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.0M
Each employee generates -227% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VCTR
BANNER CORPORATION (XNAS:BANR)
NMI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:NMIH)
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
PATRIA INVESTMENTS LTD. (XNAS:PAX)
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
HOPE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HOPE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
907.34M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
418.59M
488.74M
-
53.17M
53.17M
-
25.06M
78.24M
3.43M
25.38M
25.06M
408.77M
385.63M
284.46M
358.32M
73.86M
284.46M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.61M
Differed Income Tax :
7.89M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.79M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19582.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 13487.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 171.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
74.81M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1176.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1827.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2365.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
38.55M
-
38.55M
93.71M
-
7.91M
140.18M
24.76M
981.81M
1.34B
32.39M
-
52.32M
2.43B
-
2.57B
47.59M
-
-
-
305.55M
353.14M
1.06B
96.47M
1.23B
-
1.59B
779.00K
456.47M
22.2M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
496.83M
986.27M
2.57B
-
1.06B
1.0B
1.25M
-
- 4119.00K
- 70000.00K
1.30M
- 10193.00K
- 17381.00K
- 5373.00K
- 101645.00K
- 32.00K
- 30983.00K
38.55M
69.53M
74.81M
- 1176.00K
73.64M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VCTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.80
$43.27
$46.52
$50.02
$53.78