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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Victoria'S Secret & Co. (XNYS:VSCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VSCO
Name:
VICTORIA'S SECRET & CO. (XNYS:VSCO)
Sector:
547.00M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VICTORIA'S SECRET & CO.(VSCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.76
One Month Price Target:
$33.04
Six Month Price Target :
$34.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.93
This week:
$26.44
This month :
$20.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
83.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.61%
-16.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.89
$39.93
$19.63
$25.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.71
$27.52
$28.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VSCO
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.37%
Comparison:
VSCO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -153.64% lower than the industry
& is -116.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VSCO
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.14%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -118.32% below industry average
Classification:
VSCO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
VSCO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.20%
Weekly Volatility:
9.39%
Monthly Volatility:
18.78%
Yearly Volatility:
65.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.63%
Weekly VaR:
-19.30%
Monthly VaR:
-38.60%
How Much Can the price of
VSCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.55
This translates to price declining to:
$4.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VSCO is a 172.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 133.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VSCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.615
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.035
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.008
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is 10.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
101.35%
Sustainable growth rate is 148.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.151
Alpha is 314.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -963% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VSCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 7.97% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.61%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.61%
WACC is -4.29% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$80.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -420.35% below industry average
EPS:
$6.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
37.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 80.51% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.38
-
-
Debt per share
$19.86
EBITDA per share
$10.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
VSCO
P/E Ratio:
6.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is -54.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $84.68
VSCO is -61.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.41
Price to sales ratio is -53.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.05
Price to free cash flow: 3.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-91.97%
Net income growth rate is 48.44% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
185.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
194.84%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.05%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-52.38
Interest coverage ratio is -123.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-21.91%
Annual debt growth is -108% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 10.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
-0.01
Statistical significance of correlation:
VSCO does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is -102.28% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
7.569
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.374
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VSCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.01%
Operating profit margin is 48.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.26%
Effective tax rate is -19.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
62.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 49.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is 25.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.8
Current ratio is -54.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-22.8
Cash conversion cycle is -147.65% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VSCO
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
6.72B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.11B
2.61B
-
- 1908000.00K
- 1908000.00K
-
-
- 1908000.00K
-
- 16000.00K
153.00M
838.00M
739.00M
553.00M
696.00M
148.00M
553.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
326.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 64000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
25.00M
Change in Working Capital :
298.00M
Accounts Receivables:
36.00M
Other Working Capital:
97.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
161.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
674.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/31/21
2021
FY
335.00M
-
335.00M
121.00M
701.00M
82.00M
1.24B
2.67B
-
246.00M
-
20.00M
56.00M
2.99B
-
4.23B
338.00M
421.00M
60.00M
246.00M
551.00M
1.56B
1.65B
113.00M
1.78B
-
3.34B
-
-
4.0M
-
January 31, 2021 at 7:00:00 AM
5.98B
891.00M
4.23B
-
2.07B
1.7B
-
- 123000.00K
- 123000.00K
- 189000.00K
-
-
-
- 276000.00K
- 465000.00K
4.00M
90.00M
335.00M
245.00M
674.00M
- 127000.00K
547.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VSCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.00
$41.86
$46.11
$50.80
$55.96