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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vicor Corporation (XNAS:VICR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VICR
Name:
VICOR CORPORATION (XNAS:VICR)
Sector:
- 18098.00K
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Dr. Patrizio Vinciarelli
Total Employees:
1,027
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 261.32% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VICOR CORPORATION(VICR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
63.57
One Month Price Target:
$63.97
Six Month Price Target :
$65.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$68.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$64.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.78
This week:
$52.87
This month :
$42.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
43.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.3%
-25.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.77
$75.48
$41.37
$51.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.94
$54.97
$57.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VICR
Sharpe Ratio:
3.34%
Comparison:
VICR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 64.61% higher than the industry
& ratio is 46.50% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VICR
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
2.67%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 103.02% above industry average
Classification:
VICR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
VICR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.73%
Weekly Volatility:
8.34%
Monthly Volatility:
16.69%
Yearly Volatility:
57.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 43.89% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.53%
Weekly VaR:
-16.84%
Monthly VaR:
-33.67%
How Much Can the price of
VICR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.61
This translates to price declining to:
$9.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VICR is a 137.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 103.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 40.38% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VICR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.775
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.096
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.1
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.814
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.068
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.097
Beta is 1.78% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is -4.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.46%
Sustainable growth rate is 1.51% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.212
Alpha is 363.06% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1351% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VICR
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -3.51% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.78%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.78%
WACC is 16.41% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.47
Annual revenue growth rate is -29.55% below industry average
EPS:
$1.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
53.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 168.96% higher than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.15
EBITDA per share
$1.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
VICR
P/E Ratio:
75.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
254.67
P/E ratio is -70.18% lower than main peers & is 216.61% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $24.70
VICR is 157.34% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.79
Price to sales ratio is 196.10% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.47
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 359.88% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
68.70%
Net income growth rate is -63.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-42.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-37.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
68.12
Interest coverage ratio is 391.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.89%
Annual debt growth is -725% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.416
Statistical significance of correlation:
VICR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is -32.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.061
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.133
Kurtosis
6.756
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.401
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VICR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
191%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.72%
Operating profit margin is 46.97% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
191%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.58%
Effective tax rate is -96.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.77%
Return on equity (ROE) is -37.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is 35.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.95
Current ratio is 171.48% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.7
Cash conversion cycle is -34.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
349.4K
Each employee generates 95% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
58.3K
Each employee generates 107% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.3K
Each employee generates 176% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.6K
Each employee generates 536% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
140.9K
Each employee generates 536% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 4.32%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -186.99% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VICR
COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:COMM)
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
QUALYS, INC. (XNAS:QLYS)
VNET Group, Inc. (XNAS:VNET)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:TENB)
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
LIVEPERSON, INC. (XNAS:LPSN)
BIGCOMMERCE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:BIGC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
358.85M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
187.75M
171.10M
54.34M
-
71.10M
-
-
125.44M
879.00K
879.00K
12.20M
59.88M
45.66M
46.53M
46.80M
271.00K
46.53M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.30M
Differed Income Tax :
2.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.99M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5696.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 5763.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 22683.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
191.05M
20.00M
211.05M
52.66M
73.86M
7.02M
344.59M
140.49M
-
-
2.54M
206.00K
1.52M
144.76M
-
489.35M
22.57M
1.21M
21.00K
8.38M
17.39M
49.56M
6.69M
574.00K
7.60M
-
57.16M
558.00K
222.63M
- 1824.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
313.19M
431.91M
489.07M
22.54M
7.91M
- 183142.0K
25.00M
-
2.32M
-
-
-
-
1.81M
1.81M
- 80.00K
8.63M
191.05M
182.42M
4.59M
- 22683.00K
- 18098.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VICR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$68.68
$186.18
$200.15
$215.17
$231.31