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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vici Properties Inc. (XNYS:VICI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VICI
Name:
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
Sector:
297.58M
Industry:
REIT�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Edward Pitoniak
Total Employees:
152
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.11% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VICI PROPERTIES INC.(VICI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.67
One Month Price Target:
$32.86
Six Month Price Target :
$33.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.87
This week:
$28.65
This month :
$24.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
31.95B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
963.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.7%
-28.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.02
$37.16
$24.32
$28.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.09
$29.42
$30.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VICI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.60%
Comparison:
VICI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 343.70% higher than the industry
& ratio is 14.06% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VICI
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
5.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 250.01% above industry average
Classification:
VICI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
VICI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.72%
Weekly Volatility:
6.08%
Monthly Volatility:
12.17%
Yearly Volatility:
42.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.51%
Weekly VaR:
-12.31%
Monthly VaR:
-24.63%
How Much Can the price of
VICI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-85.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.85
This translates to price declining to:
$4.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VICI is a 73.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.18% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VICI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.783
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.107
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.76
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.888
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.947
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.884
Beta is 14.85% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.109
Beta is -8.44% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.50%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.090
Alpha is -269.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 572% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VICI
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is -5.96% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.22%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.22%
WACC is 24.85% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.03
Annual revenue growth rate is 192.85% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2940.80% higher than the REIT�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.44
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 109.58%
Equity growth rate per share is 527.33% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.40
EBITDA per share
$1.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
VICI
P/E Ratio:
32.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
189.26
P/E ratio is -82.91% lower than main peers & is -22.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $67.91
VICI is -51.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $63.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
20.27
Price to sales ratio is 158.15% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.03
Price to free cash flow: 22.67
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
40.48%
Net income growth rate is -1333.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 23.15%
Dividend yeild: 4.41%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.38
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-22--$0.36
2021-12-22--$0.36
2021-06-23--$0.33
2022-03-23--$0.36
2021-09-23--$0.36
2021-03-24--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -83.82% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
33.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.58
Interest coverage ratio is 94.53% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.37%
Annual debt growth is -992% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.683
Statistical significance of correlation:
VICI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.573
Stock price is 19.24% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.573
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
27.658
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.072
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VICI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
389%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
90.08%
Operating profit margin is 387.10% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
389%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.28%
Effective tax rate is -57.64% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is 88.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is 180.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.87
Current ratio is 46.38% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
639.5
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
10.2M
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
9.0M
Each employee generates 19% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.5M
Each employee generates 62% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 51% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.4M
Each employee generates 51% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VICI
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (XNYS:CPT)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
VNO-PM
VNO-PL
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.55B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
42.38M
1.51B
-
34.50M
34.50M
-
77.11M
111.61M
194.00K
383.48M
3.08M
1.37B
1.40B
984.43M
996.55M
2.80M
984.43M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
776.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.63M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9154.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
61.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
298.17M
Investments in PP&E:
- 454.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
568.70M
-
568.70M
3.17B
-
3.46M
3.75B
564.88M
-
-
-
-
17.43B
18.00B
-
21.74B
-
600.00M
-
-
368.34M
968.34M
5.20B
82.74M
5.29B
-
6.26B
7.48M
315.81M
109.5M
14.97B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
175.35M
15.40B
21.66B
-
5.80B
5.2B
-
- 4027791.00K
- 4028245.00K
-
3.22B
- 2712.00K
- 227863.00K
570.61M
3.56B
-
- 170912.00K
568.70M
739.61M
298.17M
- 590.00K
297.58M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VICI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.07
$130.76
$139.69
$149.22
$159.41