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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Viatris Inc. (XNAS:VTRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VTRS
Name:
VIATRIS INC. (XNAS:VTRS)
Sector:
1.07B
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Robert J. Coury
Total Employees:
37,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 18464.13% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VIATRIS INC.(VTRS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.45
One Month Price Target:
$9.51
Six Month Price Target :
$9.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.95
This week:
$8.32
This month :
$7.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.21B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.5%
-24.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.79
$10.74
$7.11
$8.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.18
$8.50
$8.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VTRS
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.94%
Comparison:
VTRS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -422.58% lower than the industry
& is -228.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VTRS
Daily returns:
-0.07%
Weekly returns:
-0.33%
Monthly returns:
-1.33%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -212.34% below industry average
Classification:
VTRS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
VTRS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.73%
Monthly Volatility:
11.46%
Yearly Volatility:
39.69%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.33%
Weekly VaR:
-11.91%
Monthly VaR:
-23.83%
How Much Can the price of
VTRS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-82.55%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.39
This translates to price declining to:
$1.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VTRS is a 68.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.86% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VTRS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.822
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.163
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.771
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.57
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.57
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.009
Beta is 15.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 10.49% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.271
Alpha is -806.71% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1724% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VTRS
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 7.31% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.75%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.17%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.17%
WACC is -3.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.00% below industry average
EPS:
$0.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.29
-
-
Debt per share
$15.63
EBITDA per share
$3.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
VTRS
P/E Ratio:
15.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
126.52
P/E ratio is -88.06% lower than main peers & is -62.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $5.59
VTRS is 68.91% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $18.73
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -90.83% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.56
Price to free cash flow: 4.13
Price to free cash flow ratio is -63.38% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-408.11%
Net income growth rate is -25.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 86.52%
Dividend yeild: 4.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.27%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-23--$0.12
2021-11-22--$0.11
2021-05-21--$0.11
2022-02-23--$0.12
2021-08-23--$0.11
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -305.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
92.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
105.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.72
Interest coverage ratio is 11.12% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.29%
Annual debt growth is -363% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.462
Statistical significance of correlation:
VTRS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is 13.27% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
14.693
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.195
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VTRS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.32%
Operating profit margin is -115.83% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Effective Tax Rate:
44.91%
Effective tax rate is 244.91% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -108.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is -108.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.22
Current ratio is -63.03% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
67
Cash conversion cycle is -55.72% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
16.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
477.0K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
128.0K
Each employee generates 35% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.5K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
28.8K
Each employee generates -150% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -150% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.31%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 437.91% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VTRS
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
Grifols SA (XNAS:GRFS)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION (XNAS:EXAS)
10X GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:TXG)
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
CureVac NV (XNAS:CVAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
17.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.43B
6.22B
709.30M
-
4.26B
-
-
4.97B
-
613.40M
3.82B
4.74B
939.60M
167.70M
304.40M
136.70M
167.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
736.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 52800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
28.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 115500.00K
Other Working Capital:
199.70M
Other Non-Cash Items:
42.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.14B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8600.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
752.40M
287.40M
1.04B
4.09B
3.80B
2.81B
11.74B
3.43B
10.98B
25.25B
-
1.29B
774.30M
41.72B
-
53.47B
928.40M
3.35B
177.80M
-
5.36B
9.64B
18.95B
1.69B
23.38B
-
33.02B
12.10M
3.94B
- 2061000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
16.40B
20.45B
53.47B
-
22.31B
21.6B
8.50M
- 66800.00K
- 66900.00K
- 100.00K
-
-
- 145100.00K
- 863800.00K
- 1009000.00K
- 11400.00K
51.20M
757.40M
706.20M
1.14B
- 71900.00K
1.07B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VTRS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.33
$12.21
$13.17
$14.20
$15.31