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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Viasat, Inc. (XNAS:VSAT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VSAT
Name:
VIASAT, INC. (XNAS:VSAT)
Sector:
- 195778.00K
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Mark Dankberg
Total Employees:
7,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 371.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VIASAT, INC.(VSAT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.07
One Month Price Target:
$35.3
Six Month Price Target :
$36.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.45
This week:
$29.22
This month :
$23.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.72%
-24.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.22
$41.73
$22.92
$28.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.94
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.77
$30.18
$31.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VSAT
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.31%
Comparison:
VSAT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -200.87% lower than the industry
& is -157.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VSAT
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.19%
Monthly returns:
-0.77%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -171.54% below industry average
Classification:
VSAT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
VSAT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.61%
Weekly Volatility:
8.08%
Monthly Volatility:
16.16%
Yearly Volatility:
55.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.46%
Weekly VaR:
-16.68%
Monthly VaR:
-33.36%
How Much Can the price of
VSAT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.57
This translates to price declining to:
$5.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VSAT is a 135.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 101.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.04% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VSAT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.759
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.073
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.428
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.89
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.005
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.615
Beta is -27.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is -2.46% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.82%
Sustainable growth rate is -98.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.204
Alpha is -1427.27% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1296% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VSAT
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -1.78% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -19.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.90
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1
Annual revenue growth rate is 53.22% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.50
-
-
Debt per share
$32.14
EBITDA per share
$6.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
VSAT
P/E Ratio:
141.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
300.89
P/E ratio is -53.08% lower than main peers & is 280.30% higher than the industry
-
VSAT is -549.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.95
Price to sales ratio is -58.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1
Price to free cash flow: 4.12
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.18% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-104.71%
Net income growth rate is -122.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
92.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
85.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.81
Interest coverage ratio is -51.14% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.96%
Annual debt growth is -257% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.521
Statistical significance of correlation:
VSAT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -5.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.065
Kurtosis
11.072
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.426
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VSAT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.30%
Operating profit margin is -95.35% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Effective Tax Rate:
-86.61%
Effective tax rate is -410.40% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -101.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is -105.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.52
Current ratio is -31.61% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16.9
Cash conversion cycle is -72.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-143.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
398.2K
Each employee generates -28% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
74.8K
Each employee generates -1% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 2.2K
Each employee generates -109% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 28.0K
Each employee generates 1673% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
694.5K
Each employee generates 1673% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -11.23%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 385.14% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VSAT
VERINT SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:VRNT)
FLYWIRE CORPORATION (XNAS:FLYW)
SUNPOWER CORPORATION (XNAS:SPWR)
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:KLIC)
KINGSOFT CLOUD HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:KC)
KNOWBE4, INC. (XNAS:KNBE)
SONOS, INC. (XNAS:SONO)
INSIGHT ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:NSIT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.79B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
914.32M
1.87B
153.20M
-
657.25M
-
-
810.45M
504.00K
29.39M
495.45M
523.54M
8.33M
- 15534.00K
- 16439.00K
14.24M
- 15534.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
114.75M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
22.22M
Change in Working Capital :
- 93171.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 47885.00K
Other Working Capital:
388.47M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.36M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
65.13M
Investments in PP&E:
- 246164.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 138668.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
275.69M
-
275.69M
364.49M
349.69M
143.16M
1.13B
3.73B
181.74M
553.74M
-
286.56M
105.37M
4.86B
-
5.99B
204.20M
81.28M
-
201.71M
257.37M
744.56M
2.43B
74.68M
2.59B
-
3.34B
7.00K
266.03M
- 5939.0K
2.36B
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
2.78B
2.62B
5.96B
-
2.51B
2.2B
-
- 14743.00K
- 399575.00K
- 12346.00K
-
- 458.00K
-
328.03M
315.22M
- 1037.00K
- 20261.00K
275.69M
295.95M
65.13M
- 260907.00K
- 195778.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VSAT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.01
$10.66
$11.50
$12.40
$13.37