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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Veritone, Inc. (XNAS:VERI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VERI
Name:
VERITONE, INC. (XNAS:VERI)
Sector:
9.40M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Chad Steelberg
Total Employees:
546
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 30.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VERITONE, INC.(VERI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.38
One Month Price Target:
$6.48
Six Month Price Target :
$7.
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.59
This week:
$4.61
This month :
$2.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
234.88M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
36.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.52%
-21.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.05
$8.34
$2.71
$4.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.41
$4.98
$5.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VERI
Sharpe Ratio:
4.84%
Comparison:
VERI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 196.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 112.47% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VERI
Daily returns:
0.31%
Weekly returns:
1.54%
Monthly returns:
6.17%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 415.07% above industry average
Classification:
VERI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
VERI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.19%
Weekly Volatility:
13.84%
Monthly Volatility:
27.69%
Yearly Volatility:
95.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -21.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.41%
Weekly VaR:
-27.74%
Monthly VaR:
-55.48%
How Much Can the price of
VERI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.48
This translates to price declining to:
$0.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VERI is a 291.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 235.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 85.82% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VERI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.593
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.253
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.624
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.631
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.742
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.353
Beta is 113.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 160.41% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.511
Alpha is 1312.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3253% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VERI
Equity cost of capital:
0.230
Equity cost of capital is 113.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.48%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.48%
WACC is 75.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.12
Annual revenue growth rate is 135.17% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.99
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -131.18% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.27
-
-
Debt per share
$5.41
EBITDA per share
-$1.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
VERI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
112.14
-
-
VERI is -104.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.75
Price to sales ratio is -84.03% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.12
Price to free cash flow: 23.91
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-26.43%
Net income growth rate is -100.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
348.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-75.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
45.75
Interest coverage ratio is -121.68% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.379
Statistical significance of correlation:
VERI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -20.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.085
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.305
Kurtosis
2.182
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.597
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VERI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
316%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-48.54%
Operating profit margin is 308.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
316%
Effective Tax Rate:
-4.42%
Effective tax rate is -114.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-122.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -214.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-14.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is 285.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.03
Current ratio is -12.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-551.4
Cash conversion cycle is -589.76% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
240.7K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 99.0K
Each employee generates -252% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 125.4K
Each employee generates -699% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.2K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
242.2K
Each employee generates -13% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 74.39%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2968.66% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VERI
CLEANSPARK, INC. (XNAS:CLSK)
ALLOT LTD (XNAS:ALLT)
EBANG INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:EBON)
RIMINI STREET, INC. (XNAS:RMNI)
SMTX
COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP. (XNAS:CMTL)
MITEK SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MITK)
ABSOLUTE SOFTWARE CORPORATION (XNAS:ABST)
UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS INC. (XNAS:UEIC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
131.42M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
24.23M
107.19M
30.00M
95.29M
128.87M
33.58M
12.11M
170.98M
2.00K
- 1182.00K
12.67M
- 54077.00K
- 63790.00K
- 68467.00K
- 65568.00K
2.90M
- 68467.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.89M
Differed Income Tax :
- 426.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.85M
Change in Working Capital :
17.13M
Accounts Receivables:
18.98M
Other Working Capital:
- 2593.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.13M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 3319.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
237.55M
-
237.55M
86.67M
-
12.52M
336.74M
2.14M
36.63M
86.56M
-
-
6.93M
132.26M
-
469.00M
38.35M
-
-
7.97M
119.45M
165.77M
195.38M
51.86M
247.24M
-
413.00M
36.00K
- 380076.00K
86.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
195.21M
56.00M
469.00M
-
195.38M
- 42172.0K
-
- 735.00K
- 4054.00K
-
-
- 9441.00K
-
- 13807.00K
- 23248.00K
-
- 17168.00K
238.41M
255.58M
10.13M
- 735.00K
9.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VERI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.64
$9.13
$10.91
$13.03
$15.56