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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vericel Corporation (XNAS:VCEL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VCEL
Name:
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
Sector:
387.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Dominick Colangelo
Total Employees:
281
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -17.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VERICEL CORPORATION(VCEL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.69
One Month Price Target:
$22.95
Six Month Price Target :
$24.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.85
This week:
$18.57
This month :
$14.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.82%
-22.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.23
$27.29
$14.15
$18.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.17
$19.36
$20.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VCEL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.66%
Comparison:
VCEL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 36.69% higher than the industry
& ratio is 16.61% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VCEL
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.31%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 9.81% above industry average
Classification:
VCEL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
VCEL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.01%
Weekly Volatility:
8.97%
Monthly Volatility:
17.93%
Yearly Volatility:
62.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.12%
Weekly VaR:
-18.15%
Monthly VaR:
-36.31%
How Much Can the price of
VCEL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.71
This translates to price declining to:
$3.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VCEL is a 156.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 119.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.67% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VCEL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.165
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.648
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.625
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.185
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.843
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.402
Beta is 46.18% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 77.94% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -99.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.105
Alpha is -25.90% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 669% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VCEL
Equity cost of capital:
0.172
Equity cost of capital is 55.70% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.03%
WACC is 50.74% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.21
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.75% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -200.92% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.29
-
-
Debt per share
$0.98
EBITDA per share
-$0.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
VCEL
P/E Ratio:
280.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is 212.07% higher than the industry
-
VCEL is -205.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.79
Price to sales ratio is -83.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.21
Price to free cash flow: 79.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is 263.34% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-18.29%
Net income growth rate is -125.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.52% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-403.81
Interest coverage ratio is 241.22% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1042.06%
Annual debt growth is 671% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.515
Statistical significance of correlation:
VCEL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 51.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.05
Kurtosis
3.776
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.081
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VCEL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-7.50%
Operating profit margin is -98.25% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.20%
Effective tax rate is -61.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-6.54%
Return on equity (ROE) is -88.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -77.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
6.99
Current ratio is -13.66% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45.9
Cash conversion cycle is -91.39% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-84.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
561.2K
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 30.2K
Each employee generates -108% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 40.1K
Each employee generates -131% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.4K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
314.6K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 25.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -799.40% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VCEL
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TVTX)
EDITAS MEDICINE, INC. (XNAS:EDIT)
LUMINEX RESOURCES CORP. (OTCM:LUMIF)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AGIO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
157.69M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
51.20M
106.49M
17.52M
-
100.80M
-
-
118.31M
236.00K
21.00K
3.03M
- 8480.00K
- 11822.00K
- 11274.00K
- 11528.00K
- 254.00K
- 11274.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
873.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.53M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1119.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.58M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.47M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3081.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 12629.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
55.66M
44.89M
100.55M
31.86M
14.39M
5.09M
151.88M
59.10M
-
-
22.80M
-
6.50M
88.41M
-
240.29M
7.75M
3.19M
-
-
10.79M
21.73M
46.07M
-
46.07M
-
67.80M
563.48M
- 390377.00K
- 613.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
169.51M
172.49M
240.29M
67.69M
49.26M
- 6399.0K
5.04M
-
- 10669.00K
-
1.47M
-
-
- 962.00K
503.00K
-
- 6698.00K
61.84M
68.54M
3.47M
- 3081.00K
387.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VCEL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.94
$10.34
$11.77
$13.39
$15.23