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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Veracyte, Inc. (XNAS:VCYT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VCYT
Name:
VERACYTE, INC. (XNAS:VCYT)
Sector:
- 11325.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Ms. Bonnie Anderson
Total Employees:
761
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 74.27% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VERACYTE, INC.(VCYT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.18
One Month Price Target:
$19.31
Six Month Price Target :
$19.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.28
This week:
$14.93
This month :
$10.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.92%
-16.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.01
$23.97
$10.35
$14.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.79
$15.69
$16.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VCYT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.04%
Comparison:
VCYT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -46.46% lower than the industry
& is -54.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VCYT
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.19%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.46% below industry average
Classification:
VCYT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
VCYT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.86%
Weekly Volatility:
10.86%
Monthly Volatility:
21.73%
Yearly Volatility:
75.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.92%
Weekly VaR:
-22.18%
Monthly VaR:
-44.36%
How Much Can the price of
VCYT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.79
This translates to price declining to:
$2.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VCYT is a 213.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 168.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 2.20% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VCYT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.797
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.127
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.167
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.774
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.978
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.561
Beta is -24.33% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 2.53% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.030
Alpha is -78.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 192% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VCYT
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 1.81% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.79%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.79%
WACC is 22.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.27
Annual revenue growth rate is -88.50% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
60.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 503.18% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.19
EBITDA per share
-$0.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
VCYT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.62
-
-
VCYT is -130.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.48
Price to sales ratio is -86.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.27
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
128.46%
Net income growth rate is 82.00% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-13.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-144.14
Interest coverage ratio is 21.80% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
685.87%
Annual debt growth is 407% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.282
Statistical significance of correlation:
VCYT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -16.98% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.061
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.172
Kurtosis
1.005
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.059
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VCYT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-20.65%
Operating profit margin is -95.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.55%
Effective tax rate is -20.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is -92.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -79.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.81
Current ratio is -52.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.3
Cash conversion cycle is -98.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-13.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
329.3K
Each employee generates -80% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 35.0K
Each employee generates -109% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 63.3K
Each employee generates -149% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 14.9K
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 73.47%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2147.73% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VCYT
NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:NSTG)
BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (XNYS:BUR)
INMODE LTD (XNAS:INMD)
REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RETA)
CRONOS GROUP INC. (XNAS:CRON)
SURGERY PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:SGRY)
ARVINAS, INC. (XNAS:ARVN)
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Burning Rock Biotech Ltd (XNAS:BNR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
250.59M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
85.71M
164.88M
27.87M
98.87M
167.38M
68.52M
20.06M
215.31M
66.00K
185.00K
23.60M
- 26666.00K
- 51736.00K
- 48156.00K
- 50450.00K
- 2294.00K
- 48156.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.56M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.65M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8411.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3575.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
802.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 8872.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2453.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
163.62M
-
163.62M
42.48M
12.37M
20.02M
238.48M
31.96M
704.37M
196.23M
-
-
2.55M
935.11M
-
1.17B
11.27M
4.93M
-
4.88M
41.46M
62.54M
13.49M
7.11M
25.86M
-
88.40M
71.00K
- 371618.00K
- 20681.0K
1.48B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
301.02M
1.09B
1.17B
-
18.41M
- 145202.0K
-
-
- 2453.00K
- 100.00K
-
-
-
2.09M
1.99M
- 247.00K
- 9582.00K
164.36M
173.95M
- 8872.00K
- 2453.00K
- 11325.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VCYT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.54
$15.69
$16.94
$18.28
$19.73