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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ventas, Inc. (XNYS:VTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VTR
Name:
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
Sector:
200.23M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Ms. Debra Cafaro
Total Employees:
434
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -38.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VENTAS, INC.(VTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.35
One Month Price Target:
$47.66
Six Month Price Target :
$49.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.98
This week:
$39.81
This month :
$32.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
399.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.78%
-28.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.99
$55.84
$31.71
$38.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.99
$41.17
$42.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VTR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.82%
Comparison:
VTR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -599.69% lower than the industry
& is -64.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VTR
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.75%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1925.22% above industry average
Classification:
VTR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
VTR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.48%
Weekly Volatility:
7.79%
Monthly Volatility:
15.58%
Yearly Volatility:
53.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.12%
Weekly VaR:
-15.91%
Monthly VaR:
-31.83%
How Much Can the price of
VTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.22
This translates to price declining to:
$7.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VTR is a 124.64% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.90% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.754
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.066
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.549
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.866
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.108
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.983
Beta is 18.75% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is 13.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.022
Alpha is -77.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -139% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 9.18% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.49%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.76%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.76%
WACC is -2.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -562.51% below industry average
EPS:
$0.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-52.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -709.78% lower than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -41.66%
Equity growth rate per share is 110.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$29.84
EBITDA per share
$4.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
VTR
P/E Ratio:
1052.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
45.79
P/E ratio is 2198.41% higher than main peers & is 543.95% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $62.11
VTR is -23.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.82
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.81
Price to sales ratio is -25.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.75
Price to free cash flow: 30.10
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-88.58%
Net income growth rate is 69.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 125.25%
Dividend yeild: 3.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.45
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.45
Previous Dividend: $1.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.57
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.51
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -4.32%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 23/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 14/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.45
2021-12-31--$0.45
2021-06-30--$0.45
2022-03-31--$0.45
2021-09-30--$0.45
2021-03-31--$0.45
Dividend growth rate is -74.74% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
111.49%
Net debt to equity ratio:
116.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -10.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4
Interest coverage ratio is 114.51% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.99%
Annual debt growth is -88% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.62%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.573
Statistical significance of correlation:
VTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -0.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
19.603
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.842
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
182%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.34%
Operating profit margin is -28.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
182%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.20%
Effective tax rate is -131.64% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -66.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.51
Current ratio is -85.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-121.3
Cash conversion cycle is -611.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.90%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
9.1M
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.1M
Each employee generates -36% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
334.0K
Each employee generates -84% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
461.4K
Each employee generates -51% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
55.3M
Each employee generates -51% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VTR
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�58%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.15B
1.79B
-
28.60M
132.45M
-
1.17B
1.30B
-
440.12M
1.18B
1.76B
485.43M
144.95M
150.73M
- 1816.00K
144.95M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
292.17M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5805.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
15.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 28753.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 39450.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
274.55M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 23790.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
149.60M
-
149.60M
734.50M
-
76.08M
960.18M
-
1.05B
1.38B
613.43M
11.15M
20.94B
23.99B
-
24.95B
1.08B
682.99M
-
-
101.98M
1.86B
11.93B
313.69M
12.29B
-
14.16B
99.89M
- 4821653.00K
- 59296.0K
15.48B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.45B
10.70B
24.85B
-
12.61B
12.5B
-
- 413536.00K
- 437326.00K
- 74867.00K
-
-
- 181555.00K
421.80M
165.38M
241.00K
2.85M
199.45M
196.60M
274.55M
- 74319.00K
200.23M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.33
$88.36
$95.30
$102.77
$110.84