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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XNAS:VNDA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VNDA
Name:
VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:VNDA)
Sector:
3.97M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Mihael Polymeropoulos
Total Employees:
278
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -46.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC.(VNDA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.38
One Month Price Target:
$10.41
Six Month Price Target :
$10.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.69
This week:
$8.84
This month :
$7.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
571.27M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.16%
-20.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.57
$12.12
$7.19
$8.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.34
$9.10
$9.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VNDA
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.81%
Comparison:
VNDA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -141.43% lower than the industry
& is -135.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VNDA
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.09%
Monthly returns:
-0.34%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -116.21% below industry average
Classification:
VNDA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
VNDA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.21%
Weekly Volatility:
7.18%
Monthly Volatility:
14.37%
Yearly Volatility:
49.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 31.25% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.61%
Weekly VaR:
-14.79%
Monthly VaR:
-29.58%
How Much Can the price of
VNDA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.64
This translates to price declining to:
$1.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VNDA is a 108.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.43% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VNDA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.728
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.029
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.46
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.741
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.669
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.548
Beta is -69.84% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -59.47% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.23%
Sustainable growth rate is -86.21% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.104
Alpha is -173.57% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -664% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VNDA
Equity cost of capital:
0.063
Equity cost of capital is -42.50% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.17
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.76% below industry average
EPS:
$0.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-35.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -456.57% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.02
-
-
Debt per share
$0.17
EBITDA per share
$0.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
VNDA
P/E Ratio:
54.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.97
P/E ratio is -38.79% lower than main peers & is -39.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.82
VNDA is -62.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -94.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.17
Price to free cash flow: 10.21
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
22.89%
Net income growth rate is -67.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.20% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.17%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.421
Statistical significance of correlation:
VNDA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 23.80% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
7.7
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.087
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VNDA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.07%
Operating profit margin is -102.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.85%
Effective tax rate is 353.16% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is -106.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -114.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.42
Current ratio is -32.99% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
47.7
Cash conversion cycle is -91.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
26.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
957.6K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
97.8K
Each employee generates -75% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
65.0K
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.3K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
400.3K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.60%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1092.32% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VNDA
KURA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:KURA)
RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RUBY)
Edgewise Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:EWTX)
PMV PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PMVP)
ENDO INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (OTCM:ENDPQ)
INOTIV, INC. (XNAS:NOTV)
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED (XNAS:QSI)
HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HRTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
266.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
25.26M
240.94M
80.20M
-
135.10M
-
1.49M
216.79M
-
-
2.83M
27.20M
24.16M
18.07M
24.37M
6.30M
18.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
702.00K
Differed Income Tax :
4.42M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.78M
Change in Working Capital :
- 50.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.96M
Other Working Capital:
- 894.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
629.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.05M
Investments in PP&E:
- 75.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 79134.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
66.93M
368.25M
435.18M
30.50M
1.29M
25.31M
492.27M
11.86M
-
19.70M
-
70.80M
8.93M
111.29M
-
603.56M
14.33M
2.30M
-
-
74.12M
90.74M
9.66M
1.03M
10.69M
-
101.44M
56.00K
- 170606.00K
- 1328.0K
674.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
242.05M
502.12M
603.56M
-
11.96M
- 54970.0K
90.08M
-
10.87M
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 57.00K
14.86M
67.45M
52.59M
4.05M
- 75.00K
3.97M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VNDA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.85
$14.29
$14.74
$15.20
$15.68