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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Value Line, Inc. (XNAS:VALU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VALU
Name:
VALUE LINE, INC. (XNAS:VALU)
Sector:
7.64M
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Mr. Howard Brecher
Total Employees:
140
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -49.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VALUE LINE, INC.(VALU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
69.17
One Month Price Target:
$69.25
Six Month Price Target :
$69.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$70.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$68.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$69.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$63.2
This week:
$55.82
This month :
$42.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
655.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.47M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.13%
-19.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.84
$83.86
$41.50
$54.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.86
$58.67
$61.48
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VALU
Sharpe Ratio:
5.75%
Comparison:
VALU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 112.90% higher than the industry
& ratio is 152.47% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VALU
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.29%
Monthly returns:
5.16%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 226.07% above industry average
Classification:
VALU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
VALU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.33%
Weekly Volatility:
9.68%
Monthly Volatility:
19.36%
Yearly Volatility:
67.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 54.59% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.63%
Weekly VaR:
-19.31%
Monthly VaR:
-38.61%
How Much Can the price of
VALU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$47.61
This translates to price declining to:
$10.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VALU is a 172.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 133.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 85.89% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VALU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.58
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.821
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.18
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.775
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.017
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
5.077
Beta is -96.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is -75.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.49%
Sustainable growth rate is -22.50% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.574
Alpha is 455.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3657% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VALU
Equity cost of capital:
0.045
Equity cost of capital is -48.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.02%
WACC is -39.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.77% below industry average
EPS:
$2.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.01%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 124.06% higher than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.73
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -8.64%
Equity growth rate per share is -129.84% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.75
EBITDA per share
$3.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
VALU
P/E Ratio:
27.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.02
P/E ratio is 38.46% higher than main peers & is -10.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $88.03
VALU is -21.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $103.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $43.58
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.33
Price to sales ratio is 64.67% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.28
Price to free cash flow: 25.38
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.83% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
59.71%
Net income growth rate is -6.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.77%
Dividend yeild: 1.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.91
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.24
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.34%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.25
2021-10-29--$0.22
2021-04-23--$0.22
2022-01-28--$0.22
2021-07-23--$0.22
2021-01-29--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -74.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17968
Interest coverage ratio is 59725.52% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
231.27%
Annual debt growth is 720% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.388
Statistical significance of correlation:
VALU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is -38.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.067
Kurtosis
2.867
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.269
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VALU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.72%
Operating profit margin is -37.69% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.70%
Effective tax rate is -2.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -24.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
21.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is 94.08% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.98
Current ratio is 16.91% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-0.6
Cash conversion cycle is -102.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
286.6K
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
256.7K
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
193.5K
Each employee generates -27% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
54.5K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
496.4K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VALU
ORRSTOWN FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:ORRF)
WAM MICROCAP LIMITED (XASX:WMI)
OYSTER ENTERPRISES ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:OSTR)
Semantix, Inc (XNAS:STIX)
VELOCITY ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:VELO)
BIOTECH ACQUISITION COMPANY (XNAS:BIOT)
SCP & CO HEALTHCARE ACQUISITION COMPANY (XNAS:SHAC)
NORTHRIM BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NRIM)
Kairos Acquisition Corp (XNAS:KAIR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
1/31/22
Revenue:
40.12M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
22.45M
17.68M
-
5.48M
8.96M
3.48M
-
8.96M
7.00K
2.00K
1.33M
35.94M
8.72M
27.09M
34.60M
7.51M
27.09M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
333.00K
Differed Income Tax :
- 168.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.95M
Accounts Receivables:
2.52M
Other Working Capital:
- 1775.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 380.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.64M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2034.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
25.04M
25.88M
50.91M
1.47M
-
1.73M
54.11M
8.00M
-
-
60.91M
-
469.00K
69.50M
-
123.60M
1.38M
3.42M
942.00K
18.20M
4.36M
27.36M
7.11M
-
25.60M
-
52.96M
1.00M
76.30M
- 1.0K
- 6655.00K
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
31.41M
70.64M
123.60M
86.78M
10.53M
- 14503.0K
2.53M
-
496.00K
-
-
- 163.00K
- 2104.00K
-
- 2267.00K
-
5.86M
25.50M
19.64M
7.64M
-
7.64M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VALU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$89.40
$90.56
$91.74
$92.93
$94.14