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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Valley National Bancorp (XNAS:VLYPP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VLYPP
Name:
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
Sector:
473.25M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Ira D. Robbins
Total Employees:
3,370
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -169.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP(VLYPP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.36
One Month Price Target:
$24.52
Six Month Price Target :
$25.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.11
This week:
$21.57
This month :
$18.79
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
506.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
34.47%
-18.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.14
$27.51
$18.58
$21.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.09
$22.06
$22.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VLYPP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.09%
Comparison:
VLYPP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.90% lower than the industry
& is -96.17% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VLYPP
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.22%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -75.75% below industry average
Classification:
VLYPP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.93
Statistical test of Returns:
VLYPP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.58%
Monthly Volatility:
11.16%
Yearly Volatility:
38.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -93.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.11%
Weekly VaR:
-11.43%
Monthly VaR:
-22.87%
How Much Can the price of
VLYPP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.21%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.46
This translates to price declining to:
$5.06
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VLYPP is a 61.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VLYPP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.767
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.084
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.945
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.339
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.479
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.145
Beta is -0.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 18.07% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.82%
Sustainable growth rate is 7.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.083
Alpha is -815.21% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -528% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VLYPP
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 12.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.92%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.92%
WACC is -7.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.42
Annual revenue growth rate is 27.53% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.89
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 24.33%
Equity growth rate per share is -37.17% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.78
EBITDA per share
$1.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
VLYPP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
209.79
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.93
Price to sales ratio is 108.79% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.42
Price to free cash flow: 3.09
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
81.25%
Net income growth rate is 47.54% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.67%
Dividend yeild: 6.42%
Previous Dividend: $0.39
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.39
Previous Dividend: $1.56
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.39
2021-12-14--$0.39
2021-06-14--$0.39
2022-03-14--$0.39
2021-09-14--$0.39
2021-03-12--$0.39
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
27.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
28.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.64
Interest coverage ratio is 822.15% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.00%
Annual debt growth is -10205% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.287
Statistical significance of correlation:
VLYPP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -42.63% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.024
Kurtosis
62.702
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.816
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VLYPP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.01%
Effective tax rate is 20.69% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is -53.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.41
Current ratio is -95.98% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
409.9K
Each employee generates 8% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
244.9K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
140.0K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
140.4K
Each employee generates 69% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
558.1K
Each employee generates 69% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VLYPP
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPO)
TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:TCBI)
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBTX)
TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)
SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:SFBS)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
313.42M
313.42M
-
-
14.75M
1.34B
107.98M
78.74M
825.30M
-
471.69M
641.75M
166.89M
471.69M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.83M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.26M
Change in Working Capital :
350.18M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
496.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 22749.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 560462.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
730.92M
1.02B
1.75B
102.67M
-
-
1.85B
337.48M
1.47B
74.88M
3.12B
-
- 3119714.00K
1.88B
43.58B
43.55B
-
766.62M
-
-
-
766.62M
1.41B
36.28B
37.69B
-
38.46B
148.48M
945.23M
- 56098.0K
4.06B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
5.10B
43.55B
4.13B
2.18B
1.4B
214.72M
- 1216806.00K
- 1585293.00K
-
95.00K
- 23627.00K
- 3172.00K
- 203006.00K
- 229710.00K
-
- 1319000.00K
730.92M
2.05B
496.00M
- 22749.00K
473.25M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VLYPP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.35
$28.37
$30.53
$32.87
$35.38