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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Valley National Bancorp (XNAS:VLYPO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VLYPO
Name:
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPO)
Sector:
496.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Ira D. Robbins
Total Employees:
3,370
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -745.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP(VLYPO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.46
One Month Price Target:
$23.61
Six Month Price Target :
$24.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.52
This week:
$21.35
This month :
$19.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
506.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.07%
-20.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.84
$25.85
$19.08
$21.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.77
$21.72
$22.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VLYPO
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.29%
Comparison:
VLYPO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -123.68% lower than the industry
& is -112.76% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VLYPO
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -93.07% below industry average
Classification:
VLYPO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
VLYPO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.96%
Weekly Volatility:
4.38%
Monthly Volatility:
8.76%
Yearly Volatility:
30.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.02%
Weekly VaR:
-8.98%
Monthly VaR:
-17.97%
How Much Can the price of
VLYPO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-62.24%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.74
This translates to price declining to:
$8.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VLYPO is a 26.82% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.46% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VLYPO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.735
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.039
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.907
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.333
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.474
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.105
Beta is 2.93% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 18.07% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.82%
Sustainable growth rate is 7.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.102
Alpha is -978.07% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -648% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VLYPO
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 12.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.82%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.82%
WACC is -7.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.33
Annual revenue growth rate is 27.53% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.61
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 24.33%
Equity growth rate per share is -37.17% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.45
EBITDA per share
$1.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
VLYPO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
209.37
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.45
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.5
Price to sales ratio is 98.71% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.33
Price to free cash flow: 3.08
Price to free cash flow ratio is -80.17% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
81.25%
Net income growth rate is 47.54% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.40%
Dividend yeild: 5.86%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.34
2021-12-14--$0.34
2021-06-14--$0.34
2022-03-14--$0.34
2021-09-14--$0.34
2021-03-12--$0.34
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.64
Interest coverage ratio is 822.29% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.00%
Annual debt growth is -10205% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.38
Statistical significance of correlation:
VLYPO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -24.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
50.661
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.969
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VLYPO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.01%
Effective tax rate is 20.69% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is -52.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
414.8K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
244.9K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
140.9K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
147.2K
Each employee generates 77% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates 77% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VLYPO
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP (XNAS:CATY)
TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:TCBI)
TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:SFBS)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
410.56M
410.56M
-
-
-
1.34B
107.98M
75.69M
825.42M
-
474.86M
641.75M
166.89M
474.86M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.78M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.26M
Change in Working Capital :
281.89M
Accounts Receivables:
- 5785.00K
Other Working Capital:
9.65M
Other Non-Cash Items:
71.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
496.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 8607.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 561124.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
730.92M
50.91M
781.83M
102.67M
-
-
-
595.99M
1.47B
74.88M
4.13B
-
-
6.27B
49.83B
43.55B
-
484.18M
-
-
-
484.18M
1.75B
-
1.75B
39.72B
38.46B
148.48M
945.23M
3.8B
- 23152.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
5.10B
43.55B
4.19B
2.23B
1.5B
209.88M
- 1225442.00K
- 1585293.00K
-
95.00K
- 23627.00K
- 49377.00K
- 156801.00K
- 229710.00K
-
- 1319000.00K
730.92M
2.05B
496.00M
-
496.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VLYPO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.38
$27.32
$29.41
$31.65
$34.07