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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Vail Resorts, Inc. (XNYS:MTN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MTN
Name:
VAIL RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:MTN)
Sector:
298.89M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. Robert Katz
Total Employees:
6,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 222.21% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF VAIL RESORTS, INC.(MTN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
222
One Month Price Target:
$223.5
Six Month Price Target :
$231.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$240.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$221.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$223.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$210.5
This week:
$196.28
This month :
$170.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.94%
-12.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$275.40
$251.02
$168.60
$192.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$243.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$237.88
$200.85
$206.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MTN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.50%
Comparison:
MTN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -82.04% lower than the industry
& is -77.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MTN
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.43%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -84.61% below industry average
Classification:
MTN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
MTN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.66%
Monthly Volatility:
11.33%
Yearly Volatility:
39.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.18%
Weekly VaR:
-11.59%
Monthly VaR:
-23.17%
How Much Can the price of
MTN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.27%
This translates to price declining to:
$177.05
This translates to price declining to:
$43.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MTN is a 63.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MTN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.911
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.288
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.434
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.717
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.6
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.349
Beta is -10.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is -41.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.54%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.87% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is -138.48% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -398% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MTN
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -34.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.88%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.88%
WACC is -12.55% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$61.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.36
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.57% below industry average
EPS:
$7.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -166.69% lower than the Resorts & Casinos industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 95.09% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$71.97
EBITDA per share
$18.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
MTN
P/E Ratio:
28.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.57
P/E ratio is 33.68% higher than main peers & is -31.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $322.59
MTN is -31.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $2,586.98
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2,415.09
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.63
Price to sales ratio is 44.95% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.36
Price to free cash flow: 16.57
Price to free cash flow ratio is -27.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-66.27%
Net income growth rate is 0.66% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.27%
Dividend yeild: 2.51%
Previous Dividend: $1.91
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.91
Previous Dividend: $5.58
Expected next dividend best case: $2.46
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 09/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 06/09/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-24--$1.91
2021-12-27--$0.88
2020-03-25--$1.76
2022-03-29--$1.91
2021-10-04--$0.88
2019-12-24--$1.76
Dividend growth rate is -122.72% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
202.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
110.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.09
Interest coverage ratio is -3.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.572
Statistical significance of correlation:
MTN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 0.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
5.668
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.458
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MTN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.49%
Operating profit margin is 193.23% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.78%
Effective tax rate is -71.48% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is 4.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.4
Current ratio is -36.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9.4
Cash conversion cycle is -122.63% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
403.8K
Each employee generates 54% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
125.0K
Each employee generates 77% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
51.8K
Each employee generates 139% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
49.0K
Each employee generates 390% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
739.8K
Each employee generates 390% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MTN
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (XNYS:IHG)
WESTROCK COMPANY (XNYS:WRK)
FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:FND)
PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (XNYS:PKG)
PULTEGROUP, INC. (XNYS:PHM)
BORGWARNER INC. (XNYS:BWA)
FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC. (XNYS:FBHS)
LEAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEA)
WHIRLPOOL CORPORATION (XNYS:WHR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
2.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.32B
1.14B
-
346.81M
346.81M
-
188.39M
535.20M
-
149.66M
252.44M
762.38M
529.40M
315.80M
377.54M
44.49M
315.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
61.49M
Differed Income Tax :
- 56603.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.43M
Change in Working Capital :
483.06M
Accounts Receivables:
236.75M
Other Working Capital:
262.70M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 6014.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
349.02M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
1.47B
-
1.47B
108.99M
103.70M
96.79M
1.78B
2.27B
1.79B
319.25M
-
-
136.12M
4.51B
-
6.29B
116.50M
150.83M
43.38M
743.81M
256.68M
1.27B
2.90B
243.31M
3.36B
-
4.62B
466.00K
598.83M
44.7M
788.49M
October 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.86B
1.43B
6.06B
-
3.05B
1.6B
-
- 39857.00K
- 39857.00K
- 38770.00K
-
-
- 35594.00K
- 10370.00K
- 84734.00K
- 142.00K
224.29M
1.48B
1.26B
349.02M
- 50130.00K
298.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MTN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$236.38
$255.58
$276.33
$298.77
$323.03