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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
V.F. Corporation (XNYS:VFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VFC
Name:
V.F. CORPORATION (XNYS:VFC)
Sector:
- 33216.00K
Industry:
Apparel Manufacturing
CEO:
Mr. Steven Rendle
Total Employees:
35,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 409.48% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF V.F. CORPORATION(VFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.75
One Month Price Target:
$41.06
Six Month Price Target :
$42.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$38.42
This week:
$35.54
This month :
$30.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.64B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
388.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.%
-12.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.58
$46.73
$29.92
$34.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.12
$36.33
$37.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VFC
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.24%
Comparison:
VFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 261.47% higher than the industry
& is -242.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VFC
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.40%
Monthly returns:
-1.60%
Yearly returns:
-3.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 433.21% above industry average
Classification:
VFC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
VFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.75%
Weekly Volatility:
6.14%
Monthly Volatility:
12.28%
Yearly Volatility:
42.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.72%
Weekly VaR:
-12.79%
Monthly VaR:
-25.58%
How Much Can the price of
VFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-88.61%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.15
This translates to price declining to:
$4.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VFC is a 80.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.802
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.134
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.559
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.841
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.854
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.646
Beta is -16.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.537
Beta is -11.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.45%
Sustainable growth rate is 36.69% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.317
Alpha is 83.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2020% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is -8.54% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.84%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.84%
WACC is -28.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.84
Annual revenue growth rate is 297.08% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -80.35% lower than the Apparel Manufacturing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.38
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 323.25%
Equity growth rate per share is 1367.72% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$15.24
EBITDA per share
$5.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
VFC
P/E Ratio:
15.92
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.21
P/E ratio is 120.97% higher than main peers & is -31.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $71.53
VFC is -43.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.85
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.34
Price to sales ratio is -31.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.84
Price to free cash flow: 29.44
Price to free cash flow ratio is 17.17% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
63.66%
Net income growth rate is -105.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.85%
Dividend yeild: 4.88%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.99
Expected next dividend best case: $0.51
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.49
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.49
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.50
2021-12-09--$0.50
2021-06-09--$0.49
2022-03-09--$0.50
2021-09-09--$0.49
2021-03-09--$0.49
Dividend growth rate is -97.61% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
180.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
172.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -22.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
27.55
Interest coverage ratio is -85.93% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
75.67%
Annual debt growth is 180% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.684
Statistical significance of correlation:
VFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is 18.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
4.032
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.082
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.78%
Operating profit margin is 133.22% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.15%
Effective tax rate is -37.74% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
42.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 177.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 91.13% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -35.18% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.3
Cash conversion cycle is -55.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
338.3K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
58.1K
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
39.6K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.9K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
256.7K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VFC
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP. (XNYS:LVS)
BALL CORPORATION (XNYS:BALL)
LENNAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEN)
Magna International Inc. (XNYS:MGA)
Carnival Corp (XNYS:CCL)
TATA MOTORS LIMITED (XNYS:TTM)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (XNYS:BBY)
CARVANA CO. (XNYS:CVNA)
CARNIVAL PLC (XNYS:CUK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�54%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
11.84B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.39B
6.46B
-
-
4.82B
-
-
4.82B
5.01M
73.87M
266.94M
2.03B
1.63B
1.39B
1.52B
306.98M
1.39B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
68.05M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
21.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 92333.00K
Accounts Receivables:
167.80M
Other Working Capital:
- 107457.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 240655.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
81.01M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
616.53M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/3/21
2022
Q1
1.27B
598.81M
1.87B
1.14B
1.22B
334.78M
4.56B
2.44B
2.43B
3.03B
-
-
1.09B
8.99B
-
13.55B
534.80M
1.01B
-
-
1.53B
3.07B
5.92B
1.29B
7.20B
-
10.28B
98.16M
317.11M
- 965886.0K
3.82B
July 3, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
10.21B
3.27B
13.55B
-
6.93B
5.7B
-
- 107701.00K
508.83M
- 3226.00K
20.91M
-
- 192131.00K
-
- 174447.00K
10.00M
425.39M
1.28B
851.21M
81.01M
- 114224.00K
- 33216.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.38
$50.64
$55.29
$60.36
$65.91