_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Us Foods Holding Corp. (XNYS:USFD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
USFD
Name:
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:USFD)
Sector:
86.00M
Industry:
Food Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Pietro Satriano
Total Employees:
28,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -280.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF US FOODS HOLDING CORP.(USFD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FOOD DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.7
One Month Price Target:
$29.93
Six Month Price Target :
$31.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.31
This week:
$24.36
This month :
$19.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.56B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
223.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.35%
-25.3%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.79
$35.73
$18.61
$23.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.00
$25.31
$26.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
USFD
Sharpe Ratio:
0.61%
Comparison:
USFD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -76.14% lower than the industry
& is -73.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
USFD
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
25.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.56% below industry average
Classification:
USFD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
USFD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.93%
Weekly Volatility:
8.79%
Monthly Volatility:
17.59%
Yearly Volatility:
60.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.78%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.04%
Weekly VaR:
-17.99%
Monthly VaR:
-35.97%
How Much Can the price of
USFD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.36
This translates to price declining to:
$4.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
USFD is a 153.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 117.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.61% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
USFD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.859
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.215
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.742
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.092
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.041
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.144
Beta is 20.87% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is 27.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -53.87% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.048
Alpha is -131.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -304% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
USFD
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 19.08% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.25%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.25%
WACC is 22.33% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$138.42
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -108.10% below industry average
EPS:
$0.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-32.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -185.54% lower than the Food Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.44
-
-
Debt per share
$21.84
EBITDA per share
$3.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
USFD
P/E Ratio:
41.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.07
P/E ratio is 26.46% higher than main peers & is 23.17% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $21.73
USFD is 36.68% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.21
Price to sales ratio is -44.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.56
Price to free cash flow: 66.88
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-151.45%
Net income growth rate is 59.98% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.97%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
114.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
117.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.84
Interest coverage ratio is 33.48% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
18.61%
Annual debt growth is -269% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.593
Statistical significance of correlation:
USFD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.422
Stock price is 40.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.422
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
16.448
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.63
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
USFD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.39%
Operating profit margin is 147.43% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.90%
Effective tax rate is 14.78% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -23.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.34
Current ratio is -17.26% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.7
Cash conversion cycle is -92.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.3K
Each employee generates -44% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.5K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.1K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
318.2K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
USFD
COTY INC. (XNYS:COTY)
Post Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:POST)
PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP COMPANY (XNYS:PFGC)
INGREDION INCORPORATED (XNYS:INGR)
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:SAM)
FLOWERS FOODS, INC. (XNYS:FLO)
RLX Technology Inc. (XNYS:RLX)
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LW)
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
30.99B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.14B
4.85B
-
-
4.41B
-
-
4.41B
-
214.00M
366.00M
821.00M
430.00M
181.00M
241.00M
60.00M
181.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
89.00M
Differed Income Tax :
4.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.00M
Change in Working Capital :
58.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
158.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 72000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
190.00M
-
190.00M
1.86B
1.83B
177.00M
4.05B
2.02B
5.63B
819.00M
-
9.00M
435.00M
8.91B
-
12.96B
2.08B
317.00M
-
-
635.00M
3.03B
4.89B
473.00M
5.68B
-
8.70B
2.00M
766.00M
- 19000.0K
2.97B
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
30.55B
4.26B
12.96B
-
5.21B
5.0B
-
2.00M
- 70000.00K
- 131000.00K
-
-
- 9000.00K
94.00M
- 46000.00K
-
42.00M
190.00M
148.00M
158.00M
- 72000.00K
86.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
USFD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.35
$30.99
$33.87
$37.02
$40.46