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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Us Ecology, Inc. (XNAS:ECOL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ECOL
Name:
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
Sector:
28.91M
Industry:
Waste Management
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey R. Feeler
Total Employees:
3,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 851.23% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF US ECOLOGY, INC.(ECOL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND WASTE MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48.01
One Month Price Target:
$48.24
Six Month Price Target :
$49.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.24
This week:
$39.59
This month :
$31.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
67.73%
-15.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.50
$57.51
$30.52
$38.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.21
$41.08
$42.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ECOL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.62%
Comparison:
ECOL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -74.45% lower than the industry
& is -72.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ECOL
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
15.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -48.96% below industry average
Classification:
ECOL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
ECOL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.84%
Weekly Volatility:
8.58%
Monthly Volatility:
17.16%
Yearly Volatility:
59.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.85%
Weekly VaR:
-17.55%
Monthly VaR:
-35.10%
How Much Can the price of
ECOL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.29
This translates to price declining to:
$7.20
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ECOL is a 147.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 43.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ECOL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.154
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.605
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.592
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.316
Beta is -35.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -18.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.011
Alpha is -122.06% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -71% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ECOL
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -12.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.83%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.83%
WACC is -8.49% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.38
Annual revenue growth rate is 125.02% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-50.60%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1268.61% lower than the Waste Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 352.60% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$24.64
EBITDA per share
$4.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
ECOL
P/E Ratio:
284.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
61.25
P/E ratio is 364.52% higher than main peers & is 1040.39% higher than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.5
Price to sales ratio is -37.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.38
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 16.93% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-92.44%
Net income growth rate is -249.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.36
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/01/2020
Previous dividend record date: 17/01/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 01/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-01-16--$0.18
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-10-17--$0.18
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
122.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
113.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.8
Interest coverage ratio is -54.44% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.344
Statistical significance of correlation:
ECOL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.559
Stock price is -38.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.559
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.118
Kurtosis
162.448
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
9.018
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ECOL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.79%
Operating profit margin is -51.87% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
629.63%
Effective tax rate is 2475.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -103.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -103.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.95
Current ratio is 42.27% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
83.1
Cash conversion cycle is 67.04% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-67.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
277.9K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
37.9K
Each employee generates -37% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 0.8K
Each employee generates -104% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.0K
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
405.1K
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ECOL
MYR GROUP INC. (XNAS:MYRG)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
EHang Holdings Limited (XNAS:EH)
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
766.74M
233.62M
-
-
205.70M
-
-
205.70M
1.37M
28.43M
102.82M
136.58M
27.92M
- 2889.00K
1.31M
8.22M
- 2889.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.77M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3467.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.95M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2070.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.87M
Other Working Capital:
175.21M
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.96M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
22.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16180.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
74.19M
-
74.19M
256.19M
-
30.01M
360.39M
509.93M
413.53M
482.13M
1.53M
-
51.17M
1.46B
-
1.82B
63.93M
21.14M
231.00K
19.90M
80.20M
185.18M
772.28M
106.28M
1.00B
-
1.19B
315.00K
- 192137.00K
10.5M
812.53M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
972.44M
631.24M
1.82B
-
793.42M
719.2M
1.93M
438.00K
- 13810.00K
- 4302.00K
4.49M
- 12.00K
-
- 2528.00K
- 2355.00K
712.00K
6.66M
75.72M
69.05M
22.12M
6.79M
28.91M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ECOL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.05
$40.20
$42.48
$44.89
$47.43