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Urban Outfitters, Inc. (XNAS:URBN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

URBN

Name:

URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. (XNAS:URBN)

Sector:

- 5483.00K

Industry:

Apparel Retail

CEO:

Mr. Richard Hayne

Total Employees:

9,660

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -51.96% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC.(URBN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

20.57

One Month Price Target:

$20.73

Six Month Price Target :

$21.53

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$22.48

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$20.44

Price Upper limit ($) :

$20.71

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$18.95

                                                               This week:

$16.96

                                                        This month :

$13.35

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

1.94B

Market Cap Classification:

Small Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

92.17M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

21.39%

-14.6%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$28.07

$24.64

$13.07

$16.50

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$23.53

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$22.80

$17.60

$18.34

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

URBN

Sharpe Ratio:

0.69%

Comparison:

URBN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -0.33% lower than the industry

& is -69.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

URBN

Daily returns:

0.04%

Weekly returns:

0.18%

Monthly returns:

0.71%

Yearly returns:

8.86%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -4.18% below industry average

Classification:

URBN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.48

Statistical test of Returns:

URBN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

3.84%

Weekly Volatility:

8.59%

Monthly Volatility:

17.18%

Yearly Volatility:

59.50%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

3.02%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -21.37% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-7.85%

Weekly VaR:

-17.56%

Monthly VaR:

-35.12%

How Much Can the price of

URBN

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-31%

Worst case (decline):

>85%

This translates to price declining to:

$14.26

This translates to price declining to:

$3.09

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

URBN is a 147.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.02% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

URBN

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.833

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.178

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.904

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.551

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.848

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.318

Beta is 4.94% higher than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.366

Beta is 1.24% above industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

18.56%

Sustainable growth rate is -54.55% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

-0.041

Alpha is 13.35% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is -263% below the market average

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

URBN

Equity cost of capital:

0.126

Equity cost of capital is 0.93% above industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

8.25%

Before-tax cost of debt:

-

After-tax cost of debt:

-

Overall debt rating:

-

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

-

-

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$50.70

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

1.24

Annual revenue growth rate is 4.72% above the industry average

EPS:

$2.91

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

4.41%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -78.98% lower than the Apparel Retail industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

-

-

-

Debt per share

$11.50

EBITDA per share

$5.23

Valuation Analysis Today of

URBN

P/E Ratio:

9.06

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

22.27

P/E ratio is -59.33% lower than main peers & is -34.11% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.00

URBN is -48.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

0.41

Price to sales ratio is -53.20% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

1.24

-

Price to free cash flow ratio is 114.52% higher than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

-98.69%

Net income growth rate is 59.29% higher than the average industry net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

69.09%

Net debt to equity ratio:

61.40%

Debt to assets ratio:

29.62%

Net debt to assets ratio:

26.32%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.99% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-

-

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-2.24%

Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.359

Statistical significance of correlation:

URBN has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.453

Stock price is -20.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.453

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.012

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.028

Kurtosis 

3.003

Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)

Skewness of returns:

0.588

Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

URBN

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

130%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

8.16%

Operating profit margin is 9.98% higher than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

130%

Effective Tax Rate:

23.15%

Effective tax rate is -12.20% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

18.81%

Return on equity (ROE) is -54.57% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

8.06%

Return on assets (ROA) is -22.91% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.4x

Current Ratio:

1.44

Current ratio is -17.56% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

-14.5

Cash conversion cycle is -130.21% below industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

1.58%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

483.8K

Each employee generates 23% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

49.9K

Each employee generates 2% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

29.9K

Each employee generates 17% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

- 0.6K

Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

237.9K

Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

URBN

GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)

MAKEMYTRIP LIMITED (XNAS:MMYT)

MILLERKNOLL, INC. (XNAS:MLKN)

CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:CVCO)

RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)

FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)

QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)

QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)

RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�21%

Buy�13%

Hold�54%

Sell�13%

Strong sell�0%

Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold

Income Statement

Period:

TTM

Date:

4/30/22

Revenue:

4.67B

Cost of Revenue:

Gross Profit:

R&D Expense

General & Admin Expenses:

Selling, General & Admin Expenses

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Other Expenses :

Operating Expenses :

Cost & Expenses :

Interest Income:

Interest Expenses:

Depreciation & Amortization:

EBITDA:

Operating Income:

Other Income Expenses:

Income Before Tax:

Income Tax Expense:

Net Income:

Balance Sheet

Date:

Calendar Year:

Period:

Cash & Cash Equivalents:

Short Term Investments:

Cash & Short Term Investments:

Net Receivables:

Inventory:

Other Current Assets:

Total Current Assets:

PP&E:

Goodwill: 

Intangible Assets: 

Long Term Investments: 

Tax Assets: 

Other Non-Current Assets: 

Total Non-Current Assets: 

Other Assets: 

Total Assets: 

Accounts Payable: 

Short Term Debt:

Tax Payables:

Deferred Revenue:

Other Current Liabilities:

Total Current Liabilities:

Long Term Debt:

Other Non-Current Liabilities:

Total Non Current Liabilities:

Other Liabilities:

Total Liabilities:

Common Stock:

Retained Earnings:

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:

Other Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:

Total Investments:

Total Debt:

Net Debt:

3.16B

1.52B

-

-

1.14B

-

-

1.14B

2.34M

-

106.74M

482.27M

381.30M

288.60M

375.53M

86.93M

288.60M

Statement of Cash Flow

Date:

Period:

25.63M

Differed Income Tax :

37.00K

Stock Based Compensation :

4.57M

Change in Working Capital :

- 92224.00K

Accounts Receivables:

-

Other Working Capital:

389.43M

Other Non-Cash Items:

45.54M

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:

37.11M

Investments in PP&E:

- 42589.00K

Net Acquisitions:

-

Purchases of Investments:

- 94889.00K

Sales/Maturities of Investments:

Other Investing Activities:

​Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:

Debt Repayment:

Common Stock Issued:

Common Stock Repurchased:

Dividend Paid:

Other Financing Activities:

Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:

Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:

Net Changes in Cash:

Cash at End of Period:

Cash at Beginning of Period:

Operating Cash Flow:

Capital Expenditure:

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

4/30/21

2022

Q1

364.25M

164.43M

528.68M

85.31M

477.78M

189.27M

1.28B

2.08B

-

-

100.68M

115.89M

-

2.30B

-

3.58B

251.94M

246.23M

-

-

393.43M

891.60M

1.06B

93.27M

1.15B

-

2.05B

10.00K

1.53B

- 11741.0K

17.59M

April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM

4.29B

1.53B

3.58B

265.11M

1.31B

942.2M

73.85M

-

- 63630.00K

-

-

- 7418.00K

-

1.07M

- 6345.00K

1.48M

- 31388.00K

364.25M

395.64M

37.11M

- 42589.00K

- 5483.00K

Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating

Our Rating:

D

Portfolio rating_explained.png
Tech rating_explained.png
Alpha explained.png

Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of

URBN

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$22.59

$41.36

$45.21

$49.41

$54.01

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