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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Upwork Inc. (XNAS:UPWK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UPWK
Name:
UPWORK INC. (XNAS:UPWK)
Sector:
- 12902.00K
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Ms. Hayden Brown
Total Employees:
650
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -202.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UPWORK INC.(UPWK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.09
One Month Price Target:
$17.23
Six Month Price Target :
$17.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.46
This week:
$13.46
This month :
$9.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
130.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
43.57%
-18.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.63
$21.13
$9.55
$13.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.25
$14.18
$14.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UPWK
Sharpe Ratio:
3.60%
Comparison:
UPWK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 113.16% higher than the industry
& ratio is 58.16% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UPWK
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.89%
Monthly returns:
3.58%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 206.85% above industry average
Classification:
UPWK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
UPWK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.72%
Weekly Volatility:
10.55%
Monthly Volatility:
21.10%
Yearly Volatility:
73.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.78%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.51%
Weekly VaR:
-21.27%
Monthly VaR:
-42.54%
How Much Can the price of
UPWK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.01
This translates to price declining to:
$2.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UPWK is a 200.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 157.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 64.56% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UPWK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.974
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.377
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.447
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.17
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.488
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.158
Beta is 28.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is 24.53% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.296
Alpha is 1006.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1886% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UPWK
Equity cost of capital:
0.133
Equity cost of capital is 17.70% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.42%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.42%
WACC is -34.38% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -213.72% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 444.48% higher than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.42
EBITDA per share
-$0.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
UPWK
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
68.32
-
-
UPWK is -264.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.2
Price to sales ratio is 59.14% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.95
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 273.47% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.55%
Net income growth rate is 548.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
231.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
185.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.05%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -22.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-18.49
Interest coverage ratio is -163.36% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1571.82%
Annual debt growth is 739% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.335
Statistical significance of correlation:
UPWK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is -36.55% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.069
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.189
Kurtosis
11.046
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.074
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UPWK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
292%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-13.23%
Operating profit margin is -288.33% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
292%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.18%
Effective tax rate is -100.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -223.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is -193.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
3.61
Current ratio is 114.04% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.1
Cash conversion cycle is 138.08% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-22.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
816.2K
Each employee generates 60% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 88.4K
Each employee generates -328% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 112.5K
Each employee generates -658% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 19.8K
Each employee generates 67% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
231.9K
Each employee generates 67% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 42.66%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1610.21% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
UPWK
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
51job, Inc. (XNAS:JOBS)
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:BLDP)
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
530.52M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
142.98M
387.53M
130.63M
118.69M
320.02M
201.33M
7.05M
457.70M
-
3.11M
12.46M
- 57442.00K
- 70172.00K
- 73143.00K
- 73009.00K
134.00K
- 73143.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.76M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
16.74M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9617.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.99M
Other Working Capital:
1.66M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 11476.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 193.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 160251.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
121.17M
551.78M
672.96M
62.05M
-
214.53M
949.53M
30.86M
118.22M
-
-
-
1.66M
150.74M
-
1.10B
10.33M
6.36M
3.66M
23.55M
223.05M
263.29M
577.45M
10.19M
587.64M
-
850.93M
13.00K
- 275802.00K
- 3378.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
600.69M
249.35M
1.10B
-
583.82M
462.6M
106.63M
- 1233.00K
- 55043.00K
-
-
-
-
36.05M
36.05M
-
- 30465.00K
321.59M
352.06M
- 11476.00K
- 1426.00K
- 12902.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UPWK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.89
$4.05
$4.46
$4.90
$5.39