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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Upland Software, Inc. (XNAS:UPLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UPLD
Name:
UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:UPLD)
Sector:
8.05M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. John McDonald
Total Employees:
865
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -100.22% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC.(UPLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.84
One Month Price Target:
$9.88
Six Month Price Target :
$10.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.15
This week:
$8.31
This month :
$6.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
299.56M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.51%
-23.05%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.03
$11.61
$6.65
$8.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.84
$8.53
$8.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UPLD
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.15%
Comparison:
UPLD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -530.46% lower than the industry
& is -282.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UPLD
Daily returns:
-0.13%
Weekly returns:
-0.65%
Monthly returns:
-2.59%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -412.57% below industry average
Classification:
UPLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.13
Statistical test of Returns:
UPLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.33%
Weekly Volatility:
7.45%
Monthly Volatility:
14.90%
Yearly Volatility:
51.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -2.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.97%
Weekly VaR:
-15.59%
Monthly VaR:
-31.18%
How Much Can the price of
UPLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.98
This translates to price declining to:
$1.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UPLD is a 120.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UPLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.636
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.899
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.286
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.045
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.736
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.785
Beta is -60.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -46.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.391
Alpha is 1555.71% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2488% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UPLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -34.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.72%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.72%
WACC is -29.47% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -72.75% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -102.50% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.13
-
-
Debt per share
$16.49
EBITDA per share
$0.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
UPLD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
236.33
-
-
UPLD is -102.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.01
Price to sales ratio is -91.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.95
Price to free cash flow: 8.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -86.75% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
254.29%
Net income growth rate is 4.14% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
158.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
121.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
49.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -10.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.69
Interest coverage ratio is -98.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3455.62%
Annual debt growth is 269% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.515
Statistical significance of correlation:
UPLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 2.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.095
Kurtosis
4.808
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.515
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UPLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
270%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-10.41%
Operating profit margin is -45.69% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
270%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.33%
Effective tax rate is -76.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-18.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is 40.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is 47.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.17
Current ratio is -61.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-13.7
Cash conversion cycle is -114.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-19.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
354.6K
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.3K
Each employee generates 135% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 69.8K
Each employee generates 300% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.3K
Each employee generates -220% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
986.2K
Each employee generates -220% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 9.46%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 518.99% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
UPLD
INSEEGO CORP. (XNAS:INSG)
MAXEON SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, LTD. (XNAS:MAXN)
ARBE ROBOTICS LTD (XNAS:ARBE)
ITURAN LOCATION AND CONTROL LTD. (XNAS:ITRN)
Wejo Group Limited (XNAS:WEJO)
DSPG
I3 VERTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IIIV)
FTC Solar Inc (XNAS:FTCI)
SKYWATER TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:SKYT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
306.76M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
99.78M
206.98M
43.82M
72.15M
130.40M
58.26M
42.62M
216.85M
-
31.60M
54.72M
21.89M
- 31926.00K
- 60359.00K
- 64435.00K
- 4076.00K
- 60359.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.26M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1341.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.62M
Change in Working Capital :
3.14M
Accounts Receivables:
9.18M
Other Working Capital:
1.10M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.22M
Investments in PP&E:
- 176.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 62333.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
130.44M
-
130.44M
54.08M
-
25.19M
209.71M
9.48M
505.25M
300.44M
-
-
37.89M
853.05M
-
1.06B
18.48M
7.19M
-
114.50M
39.62M
179.78M
521.70M
1.05M
554.40M
-
734.18M
3.00K
- 263416.00K
12.4M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
316.63M
328.58M
1.06B
-
528.88M
398.4M
-
-
- 62509.00K
- 1353.00K
182.00K
-
-
- 3040.00K
- 4211.00K
- 217.00K
- 58715.00K
130.44M
189.16M
8.22M
- 176.00K
8.05M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UPLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.34
$10.84
$11.36
$11.90
$12.47