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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Unum Group (XNYS:UNM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UNM
Name:
UNUM GROUP (XNYS:UNM)
Sector:
304.00M
Industry:
Insurance�Life
CEO:
Mr. Richard McKenney
Total Employees:
10,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -71.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNUM GROUP(UNM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�LIFE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.63
One Month Price Target:
$37.88
Six Month Price Target :
$39.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.44
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.9
This week:
$31.53
This month :
$25.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
200.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.2%
-22.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.29
$44.45
$24.97
$30.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.31
$32.69
$33.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UNM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.45%
Comparison:
UNM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 89.26% higher than the industry
& ratio is 7.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UNM
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.93%
Yearly returns:
12.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 90.11% above industry average
Classification:
UNM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
UNM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.58%
Weekly Volatility:
8.00%
Monthly Volatility:
16.00%
Yearly Volatility:
55.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.25%
Weekly VaR:
-16.22%
Monthly VaR:
-32.44%
How Much Can the price of
UNM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.25
This translates to price declining to:
$5.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UNM is a 128.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.88% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UNM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.845
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.195
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.943
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.972
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.188
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.155
Beta is 2.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.194
Beta is -0.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.36%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.71% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.119
Alpha is 1308.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 757% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UNM
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is -0.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.30%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.30%
WACC is -2.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$59.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.71
Annual revenue growth rate is -41.25% below industry average
EPS:
$4.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -310.11% lower than the Insurance�Life industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.54%
Equity growth rate per share is 156.89% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.21
EBITDA per share
$8.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
UNM
P/E Ratio:
6.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.57
P/E ratio is -45.19% lower than main peers & is -29.08% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $43.91
UNM is -14.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.63
Price to sales ratio is -41.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.71
Price to free cash flow: 4.29
Price to free cash flow ratio is 141.93% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.81%
Net income growth rate is 205.93% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.17%
Dividend yeild: 3.19%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 14/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-28--$0.30
2021-10-28--$0.30
2021-04-29--$0.29
2022-01-27--$0.30
2021-07-29--$0.30
2021-01-28--$0.29
Dividend growth rate is -83.93% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
31.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.37
Interest coverage ratio is 124.27% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.666
Statistical significance of correlation:
UNM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.695
Stock price is -4.13% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.695
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.104
Kurtosis
9.438
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.012
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UNM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.39%
Effective tax rate is 5.28% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is 258.43% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is 114.67% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
174.0K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
118.7K
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
30.1K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
79.8K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UNM
OWL ROCK CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:ORCC)
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (XNYS:AVAL)
WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:WBS)
HAGERTY, INC. (XNYS:HGTY)
ARES-PA
SNV-PD
EVERCORE INC. (XNYS:EVR)
PRIMERICA, INC. (XNYS:PRI)
CINTAS CORPORATION (XFRA:CIT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�29%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.93B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
489.00M
489.00M
-
-
-
-
187.50M
119.70M
1.76B
-
1.20B
1.18B
251.60M
1.20B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
42.30M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
325.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 21800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1060500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.60M
1.28B
1.39B
1.57B
-
-
2.96B
454.90M
350.80M
-
47.34B
-
- 47344500.00K
805.70M
64.32B
66.47B
-
-
227.20M
-
-
-
3.44B
-
3.65B
59.49B
55.85B
-
12.04B
- 580100.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.08B
10.62B
66.47B
48.62B
3.44B
3.3B
292.20M
597.70M
- 192400.00K
-
600.00K
- 50000.00K
- 62000.00K
9.60M
- 101800.00K
-
31.60M
106.60M
75.00M
325.80M
- 21800.00K
304.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UNM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.51
$49.13
$53.03
$57.25
$61.80