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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:ULH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ULH
Name:
UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULH)
Sector:
35.07M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Tim Phillips
Total Employees:
8,004
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.95% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC.(ULH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.8
One Month Price Target:
$36.03
Six Month Price Target :
$37.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.8
This week:
$31.33
This month :
$26.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
918.85M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
26.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.53%
-13.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.06
$40.75
$26.54
$30.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.34
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.42
$32.25
$33.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ULH
Sharpe Ratio:
4.40%
Comparison:
ULH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 37.29% higher than the industry
& ratio is 92.98% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ULH
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.62%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.02% above industry average
Classification:
ULH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.33
Statistical test of Returns:
ULH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.78%
Weekly Volatility:
6.22%
Monthly Volatility:
12.44%
Yearly Volatility:
43.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.58%
Weekly VaR:
-12.48%
Monthly VaR:
-24.96%
How Much Can the price of
ULH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.44
This translates to price declining to:
$4.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ULH is a 76.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.95% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.56% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ULH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.766
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.083
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.591
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.514
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.801
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.277
Beta is -8.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is -15.76% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
23.37%
Sustainable growth rate is 4.00% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.204
Alpha is 7.93% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1297% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ULH
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -11.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.66%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.66%
WACC is -28.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$70.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.84
Annual revenue growth rate is -66.38% below industry average
EPS:
$3.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.93%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -30.40% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.55
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.74%
Equity growth rate per share is -93.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.33
EBITDA per share
$7.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
ULH
P/E Ratio:
8.45
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.66
P/E ratio is -59.09% lower than main peers & is -48.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $57.88
ULH is -38.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $17.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.78
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.51
Price to sales ratio is -97.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.84
Price to free cash flow: 23.16
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
48.57%
Net income growth rate is 751.72% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.00%
Dividend yeild: 1.17%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.42
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-03--$0.11
2021-12-03--$0.11
2021-06-04--$0.11
2022-03-04--$0.11
2021-09-02--$0.11
2021-02-26--$0.11
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
129.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
151.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -23.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.5
Interest coverage ratio is -87.38% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.97%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 24.23%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.428
Statistical significance of correlation:
ULH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -5.18% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
4.342
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.428
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ULH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
53%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.97%
Operating profit margin is -100.62% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
53%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.30%
Effective tax rate is 12.00% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is 16.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.34
Current ratio is -67.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
71.2
Cash conversion cycle is 145.65% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
232.3K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.2K
Each employee generates -50% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.8K
Each employee generates -50% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.4K
Each employee generates -19% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
88.9K
Each employee generates -19% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ULH
VEAC
BPYU
CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASS)
MUDRICK CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPORATION II (XNAS:MUDS)
AMMO, INC. (XNAS:POWW)
REKOR SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:REKR)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
SP PLUS CORPORATION (XNAS:SP)
PYROGENESIS CANADA INC. (XNAS:PYR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
1.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
247.86M
-
81.61M
81.61M
-
36.59M
118.21M
24.00K
10.89M
64.68M
201.52M
129.65M
94.09M
125.95M
31.87M
94.09M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.23M
Differed Income Tax :
- 81.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
162.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 17830.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2524.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
633.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
41.12M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
14.92M
8.98M
23.90M
423.08M
-
30.78M
477.75M
449.43M
170.73M
84.78M
-
2.06M
4.41M
711.41M
-
1.19B
130.52M
87.38M
28.21M
-
137.94M
355.83M
431.72M
6.64M
499.62M
-
855.45M
31.00M
395.26M
- 9696.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.73B
333.71M
1.19B
-
519.10M
504.2M
-
- 3440.00K
- 3440.00K
- 138073.00K
-
- 5254.00K
- 5646.00K
112.31M
- 36668.00K
- 22.00K
990.00K
14.92M
13.93M
41.12M
- 6047.00K
35.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ULH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.79
$60.87
$65.62
$70.75
$76.28