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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Universal Health Services, Inc. (XNYS:UHS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UHS
Name:
UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:UHS)
Sector:
245.43M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Alan Miller
Total Employees:
68,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 406.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES, INC.(UHS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
96.96
One Month Price Target:
$97.61
Six Month Price Target :
$100.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$104.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$96.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$97.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$91.07
This week:
$83.79
This month :
$70.63
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
72.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.34%
-22.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$124.31
$111.91
$69.61
$82.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$107.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.23
$86.01
$88.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UHS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.79%
Comparison:
UHS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -135.57% lower than the industry
& is -134.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UHS
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.07%
Monthly returns:
-0.29%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -115.10% below industry average
Classification:
UHS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
UHS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.95%
Weekly Volatility:
6.60%
Monthly Volatility:
13.19%
Yearly Volatility:
45.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.07%
Weekly VaR:
-13.58%
Monthly VaR:
-27.16%
How Much Can the price of
UHS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.09%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.50
This translates to price declining to:
$5.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UHS is a 91.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.23% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UHS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.648
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.917
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.755
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.846
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.01
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.01
Beta is 18.92% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 12.55% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.56%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.149
Alpha is -218.34% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -945% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UHS
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 8.77% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.35%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.35%
WACC is 9.02% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$177.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -36.71% below industry average
EPS:
$11.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -34.10% lower than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.70
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 93.51%
Equity growth rate per share is -963.59% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$62.43
EBITDA per share
$25.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
UHS
P/E Ratio:
9.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
167.16
P/E ratio is -94.09% lower than main peers & is -85.97% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $802.83
UHS is -87.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $62.80
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.55
Price to sales ratio is -74.14% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 17.02
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
39.46%
Net income growth rate is -74.29% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.59%
Dividend yeild: 0.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.20
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-06-01--$0.20
2022-02-28--$0.20
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-03-12--$0.20
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
77.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
77.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.22
Interest coverage ratio is 16.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
16.43%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.649
Statistical significance of correlation:
UHS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 50.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
16.053
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.031
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UHS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
355%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.06%
Operating profit margin is -240.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
355%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.83%
Effective tax rate is 9.18% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -10.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 63.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.07
Current ratio is -41.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
50.4
Cash conversion cycle is 86.47% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
189.2K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
27.1K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.7K
Each employee generates -53% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.6K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
158.7K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UHS
DR.REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD (XNYS:RDY)
HOA BINH RUBBER JOINT STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:HRC)
GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNA)
TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED (XNYS:TEVA)
Qiagen NV (XNYS:QGEN)
BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:BHC)
PENUMBRA, INC. (XNYS:PEN)
AGILON HEALTH, INC. (XNYS:AGL)
DOXIMITY, INC. (XNYS:DOCS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�33%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.92B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.45B
11.47B
-
6.48B
6.48B
-
3.69B
10.17B
705.00K
79.77M
545.59M
1.85B
1.30B
936.41M
1.22B
290.84M
936.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
143.78M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
19.06M
Change in Working Capital :
159.67M
Accounts Receivables:
- 15073.00K
Other Working Capital:
106.84M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 28097.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
445.43M
Investments in PP&E:
- 200002.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.00M
-
106.00M
1.75B
208.30M
232.72M
2.30B
6.29B
3.95B
-
-
47.55M
557.82M
10.84B
-
13.14B
1.98B
114.09M
55.73M
-
55.73M
2.15B
4.56B
475.01M
5.03B
-
7.18B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.62B
5.87B
13.05B
-
4.67B
4.6B
-
31.04M
- 168960.00K
- 11966.00K
3.50M
- 365505.00K
- 14875.00K
110.80M
- 278039.00K
- 2232.00K
- 3798.00K
175.14M
178.93M
445.43M
- 200002.00K
245.43M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UHS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$105.31
$664.92
$718.59
$776.59
$839.27