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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Universal Display Corporation (XNAS:OLED) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OLED
Name:
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION (XNAS:OLED)
Sector:
41.85M
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. Steven Abramson
Total Employees:
401
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -189.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION(OLED) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
106.6
One Month Price Target:
$107.47
Six Month Price Target :
$111.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$117.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$105.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$107.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$99.72
This week:
$91.21
This month :
$75.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.95B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.71%
-18.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$138.57
$124.13
$74.63
$89.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$119.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$116.35
$93.73
$96.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OLED
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.48%
Comparison:
OLED, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -153.20% lower than the industry
& is -164.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OLED
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.19%
Monthly returns:
-0.75%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -131.60% below industry average
Classification:
OLED, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
OLED has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.13%
Weekly Volatility:
6.99%
Monthly Volatility:
13.98%
Yearly Volatility:
48.42%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.46%
Weekly VaR:
-14.44%
Monthly VaR:
-28.87%
How Much Can the price of
OLED
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$78.92
This translates to price declining to:
$15.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OLED is a 103.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.58% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.56% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OLED
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.967
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.368
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.432
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.256
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.787
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.24
Beta is 17.62% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 4.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -38.35% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.221
Alpha is -241.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1406% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OLED
Equity cost of capital:
0.131
Equity cost of capital is 3.49% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.87%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.87%
WACC is 21.50% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 114.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -68.32% lower than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.55
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 232.78%
Equity growth rate per share is 883.50% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.56
EBITDA per share
$5.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
OLED
P/E Ratio:
27.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
298.96
P/E ratio is -90.74% lower than main peers & is -3.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.92
OLED is -3.02% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.83
Price to sales ratio is 37.98% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.45
Price to free cash flow: 30.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is 12.02% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
210.76%
Net income growth rate is -69.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.81%
Dividend yeild: 0.94%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 13.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.30
2021-12-15--$0.20
2021-06-14--$0.20
2022-03-16--$0.30
2021-09-15--$0.20
2021-03-15--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -229.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-29.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
930
Interest coverage ratio is 4681.12% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.679
Statistical significance of correlation:
OLED has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 12.43% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.028
Kurtosis
6.703
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.36
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OLED
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
312%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
39.71%
Operating profit margin is -984.61% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
312%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.61%
Effective tax rate is 50.75% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.46% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 42.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.38
Current ratio is 22.70% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
128.5
Cash conversion cycle is 120.65% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates 142% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
674.9K
Each employee generates 301% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
455.1K
Each employee generates 316% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
104.4K
Each employee generates 506% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 506% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 18.81%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -20.53% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OLED
LITTELFUSE, INC. (XNAS:LFUS)
SILICON LABORATORIES INC. (XNAS:SLAB)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (XNAS:LITE)
THOUGHTWORKS HOLDING, INC (XNAS:TWKS)
GDS HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GDS)
PEGASYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:PEGA)
FLEX LTD. (XNAS:FLEX)
WIX.COM LTD (XNAS:WIX)
Azenta, Inc. (XNAS:AZTA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
570.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
124.86M
445.14M
102.91M
-
85.03M
-
30.86M
218.80M
663.00K
291.00K
43.34M
270.63M
226.34M
182.50M
227.00M
44.51M
182.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.13M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1380.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.52M
Change in Working Capital :
49.31M
Accounts Receivables:
2.69M
Other Working Capital:
45.89M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 62934.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
52.61M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10751.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 24915.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
357.42M
325.06M
682.48M
104.95M
143.24M
29.12M
959.79M
161.52M
15.54M
53.89M
164.13M
35.79M
96.58M
527.45M
-
1.49B
27.06M
-
-
111.78M
39.41M
178.25M
26.31M
119.63M
177.68M
-
355.93M
491.00K
535.94M
- 21895.0K
616.77M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
343.66M
1.13B
1.49B
489.19M
26.31M
- 331112.0K
50.24M
- 12.00K
14.56M
-
403.00K
-
- 14246.00K
- 7896.00K
- 21739.00K
-
45.43M
357.42M
311.99M
52.61M
- 10763.00K
41.85M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OLED
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$117.64
$457.57
$502.43
$551.69
$605.78