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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Univar Solutions Inc. (XNYS:UNVR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UNVR
Name:
UNIVAR SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:UNVR)
Sector:
- 166900.00K
Industry:
Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. David Jukes
Total Employees:
9,450
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -99.41% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNIVAR SOLUTIONS INC.(UNVR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.73
One Month Price Target:
$24.96
Six Month Price Target :
$26.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.1
This week:
$21.08
This month :
$17.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
166.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.98%
-20.05%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.30
$28.83
$17.16
$20.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.95
$21.75
$22.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UNVR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.56%
Comparison:
UNVR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 29.98% higher than the industry
& is -31.40% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UNVR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.19%
Yearly returns:
10.16%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 40.73% above industry average
Classification:
UNVR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
UNVR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.24%
Weekly Volatility:
7.25%
Monthly Volatility:
14.50%
Yearly Volatility:
50.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.60%
Weekly VaR:
-14.76%
Monthly VaR:
-29.52%
How Much Can the price of
UNVR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.44
This translates to price declining to:
$3.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UNVR is a 108.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 78.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.98% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UNVR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.034
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.463
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.964
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.998
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.062
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.408
Beta is 19.11% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.371
Beta is 22.34% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.59%
Sustainable growth rate is -27.23% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -85.63% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -22% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UNVR
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is 16.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.10%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.10%
WACC is 11.59% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$61.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -241.05% below industry average
EPS:
$3.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.72
-
-
Debt per share
$14.49
EBITDA per share
$6.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
UNVR
P/E Ratio:
7.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.49
P/E ratio is -64.64% lower than main peers & is -39.65% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.22
UNVR is -38.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -66.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.64
Price to free cash flow: 34.45
Price to free cash flow ratio is 30.02% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
123.35%
Net income growth rate is 33.54% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
96.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
88.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.7
Interest coverage ratio is -16.64% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
589.29%
Annual debt growth is 451% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.25%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.669
Statistical significance of correlation:
UNVR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.682
Stock price is -1.91% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.682
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.062
Kurtosis
8.268
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.402
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UNVR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.45%
Operating profit margin is -33.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.99%
Effective tax rate is 21.99% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.95
Current ratio is 16.36% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
19.1
Cash conversion cycle is -49.43% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
109.5K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
60.9K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.7K
Each employee generates 2503% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
414.6K
Each employee generates 2503% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UNVR
SUMMIT MATERIALS, INC. (XNYS:SUM)
ENVIVA INC. (XNYS:EVA)
AVIENT CORPORATION (XNYS:AVNT)
QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION (XNYS:KWR)
H.B. FULLER COMPANY (XNYS:FUL)
SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:SXT)
LIVENT CORPORATION (XNYS:LTHM)
National Steel Company (XNYS:SID)
YAMANA GOLD INC. (XNYS:AUY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.68B
2.58B
-
1.25B
1.25B
-
615.70M
1.87B
5.00M
96.70M
191.20M
1.03B
661.60M
575.20M
746.90M
171.70M
575.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
44.70M
Differed Income Tax :
19.10M
Stock Based Compensation :
13.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 396000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 270500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 81000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 134400.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 32500.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3800.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
245.40M
-
245.40M
1.81B
1.11B
198.20M
3.36B
1.03B
2.32B
203.90M
-
26.50M
337.30M
3.92B
-
7.27B
1.15B
50.40M
-
-
522.90M
1.72B
2.42B
530.40M
3.03B
-
4.76B
1.70M
- 164200.00K
- 309200.0K
2.99B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.55B
2.52B
7.27B
-
2.47B
2.2B
-
1.80M
- 34500.00K
- 306300.00K
-
- 24000.00K
-
501.10M
170.80M
- 8000.00K
- 6100.00K
245.40M
251.50M
- 134400.00K
- 32500.00K
- 166900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UNVR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.66
$44.99
$50.05
$55.69
$61.97