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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Uniti Group Inc. (XNAS:UNIT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UNIT
Name:
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
Sector:
- 31507.00K
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Kenneth Gunderman
Total Employees:
754
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 15.30% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITI GROUP INC.(UNIT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.25
One Month Price Target:
$9.31
Six Month Price Target :
$9.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.59
This week:
$7.78
This month :
$6.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.18B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
237.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.11%
-26.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.29
$10.89
$6.21
$7.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.13
$8.06
$8.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UNIT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.56%
Comparison:
UNIT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 29.81% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.37% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UNIT
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.97%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 60.09% above industry average
Classification:
UNIT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
UNIT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.50%
Weekly Volatility:
7.83%
Monthly Volatility:
15.66%
Yearly Volatility:
54.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.09%
Weekly VaR:
-15.86%
Monthly VaR:
-31.72%
How Much Can the price of
UNIT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.76
This translates to price declining to:
$1.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UNIT is a 123.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 24.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UNIT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.926
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.309
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.702
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.81
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.056
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.404
Beta is -23.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is 12.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.56%
Sustainable growth rate is 16.63% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.131
Alpha is 158.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 836% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UNIT
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is 8.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-6.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.11%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.11%
WACC is -3.49% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-1.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -137.72% below industry average
EPS:
$0.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
125.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 367.09% higher than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -71.29%
Equity growth rate per share is -674.51% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$21.90
EBITDA per share
$3.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
UNIT
P/E Ratio:
13.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
76.43
P/E ratio is -82.50% lower than main peers & is -83.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $55.69
UNIT is -83.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.24
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.98
Price to sales ratio is -72.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-1.05
Price to free cash flow: 56.12
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
561.02%
Net income growth rate is 109.65% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.06%
Dividend yeild: 6.49%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.18%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.15
2021-12-16--$0.15
2021-06-17--$0.15
2022-03-31--$0.15
2021-09-16--$0.15
2021-03-31--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -106.17% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-247.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-244.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
106.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
105.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 38.00% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.16
Interest coverage ratio is -59.00% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-47.00%
Annual debt growth is -1665% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.445
Statistical significance of correlation:
UNIT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -26.25% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
17.143
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.076
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UNIT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
60.14%
Operating profit margin is 232.74% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
199%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.53%
Effective tax rate is -123.67% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-8.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is -146.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-16.0x
Current Ratio:
0.09
Current ratio is -95.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.8
Cash conversion cycle is -71.63% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates -82% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -83% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
239.4K
Each employee generates -92% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 41.8K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
6.3M
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UNIT
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
REDFIN CORPORATION (XNAS:RDFN)
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:PCH)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
PHILLIPS EDISON & COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:PECO)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.63M
567.41M
-
99.22M
99.22M
-
339.87M
439.09M
-
401.89M
291.44M
869.38M
665.16M
180.49M
175.43M
- 4430.00K
180.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
71.46M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3664.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.31M
Change in Working Capital :
- 57577.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2814.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3165.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
63.22M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
51.13M
-
51.13M
90.13M
-
-
141.26M
81.81M
601.88M
357.18M
64.33M
15.39M
3.63B
4.75B
-
4.89B
122.16M
-
-
1.13B
347.70M
1.60B
5.20B
182.38M
5.38B
-
6.98B
23.00K
- 3316781.00K
- 6341.0K
1.22B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
631.91M
- 2103060.00K
4.88B
-
5.20B
5.1B
-
- 94349.00K
- 94349.00K
- 60280.00K
-
-
- 105.00K
83.74M
23.35M
-
- 7774.00K
51.13M
58.90M
63.22M
- 94728.00K
- 31507.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UNIT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.97
$43.06
$46.17
$49.51
$53.08