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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
United Therapeutics Corporation (XNAS:UTHR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UTHR
Name:
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
Sector:
275.20M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Martine Rothblatt
Total Employees:
965
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION(UTHR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
222.91
One Month Price Target:
$223.59
Six Month Price Target :
$227.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$231.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$222.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$224.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$212.62
This week:
$199.91
This month :
$176.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.99%
-13.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$270.56
$248.11
$175.26
$197.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$240.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$236.02
$204.95
$209.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UTHR
Sharpe Ratio:
6.29%
Comparison:
UTHR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 223.43% higher than the industry
& ratio is 175.91% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UTHR
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.77%
Monthly returns:
3.10%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 47.39% above industry average
Classification:
UTHR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.06
Statistical test of Returns:
UTHR has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.32%
Weekly Volatility:
5.19%
Monthly Volatility:
10.39%
Yearly Volatility:
35.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.09%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -10.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.61%
Weekly VaR:
-10.32%
Monthly VaR:
-20.64%
How Much Can the price of
UTHR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-71.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$186.20
This translates to price declining to:
$63.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UTHR is a 45.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -51.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UTHR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.551
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.78
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.475
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.521
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.528
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.195
Beta is -54.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -52.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -75.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.303
Alpha is 113.48% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1928% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UTHR
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -37.52% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.85%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.85%
WACC is -32.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$38.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.43
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.67% below industry average
EPS:
$14.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$14.75
-
-
Debt per share
$17.58
EBITDA per share
$20.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
UTHR
P/E Ratio:
16.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
544.21
P/E ratio is -96.90% lower than main peers & is -81.18% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,295.67
UTHR is -82.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.74
Price to sales ratio is -85.83% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.43
Price to free cash flow: 15.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-20.53%
Net income growth rate is -129.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
50.2
Interest coverage ratio is -142.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 50.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.442
Statistical significance of correlation:
UTHR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 29.95% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.018
Kurtosis
8.59
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.447
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UTHR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
371%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
51.39%
Operating profit margin is -111.99% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
371%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.00%
Effective tax rate is 268.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -128.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is -162.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
8.84
Current ratio is 9.20% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
111.5
Cash conversion cycle is -79.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
972.7K
Each employee generates 152% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
712.3K
Each employee generates 457% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
285.2K
Each employee generates 94% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.9M
Each employee generates 94% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 51.29%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1529.58% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
UTHR
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
GOODRX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDRX)
MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRTX)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.77B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
125.40M
1.64B
305.40M
363.60M
428.80M
65.20M
-
734.20M
16.30M
18.70M
49.90M
938.70M
908.70M
687.40M
870.10M
182.70M
687.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.50M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
- 21100.00K
Change in Working Capital :
67.90M
Accounts Receivables:
28.10M
Other Working Capital:
44.90M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 10500.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
288.70M
Investments in PP&E:
- 13500.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 477600.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
813.30M
1.45B
2.27B
170.50M
88.20M
60.20M
2.59B
784.40M
28.00M
16.60M
1.56B
271.80M
113.30M
2.77B
-
5.36B
-
-
-
-
292.60M
292.60M
800.00M
90.90M
890.90M
-
1.18B
700.00K
4.55B
- 54300.0K
- 325000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
859.60M
4.18B
5.36B
3.01B
800.00M
- 13300.0K
131.90M
-
- 359200.00K
- 800000.00K
-
- 11100.00K
-
800.10M
- 11000.00K
-
- 81500.00K
813.30M
894.80M
288.70M
- 13500.00K
275.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UTHR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$232.27
$240.80
$249.66
$258.84
$268.35