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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
United Fire Group, Inc. (XNAS:UFCS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UFCS
Name:
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
Sector:
- 915.00K
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. Randy Ramlo
Total Employees:
1,086
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 5199.16% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC.(UFCS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.19
One Month Price Target:
$29.2
Six Month Price Target :
$29.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.17
This week:
$24.67
This month :
$20.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
731.97M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
25.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.39%
-21.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.58
$34.31
$19.80
$24.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.01
$25.44
$26.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UFCS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.24%
Comparison:
UFCS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -117.58% lower than the industry
& is -110.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UFCS
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.01%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -98.52% below industry average
Classification:
UFCS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
UFCS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.55%
Monthly Volatility:
15.09%
Yearly Volatility:
52.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.93%
Weekly VaR:
-15.50%
Monthly VaR:
-30.99%
How Much Can the price of
UFCS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.19
This translates to price declining to:
$4.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UFCS is a 118.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 40.16% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UFCS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.305
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.431
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.045
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.63
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.953
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.901
Beta is -94.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is -91.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.033
Alpha is -195.63% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -211% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UFCS
Equity cost of capital:
0.035
Equity cost of capital is -50.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.29%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.29%
WACC is -46.64% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.12
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.23% below industry average
EPS:
$3.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
74.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 378.39% higher than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -85.68%
Equity growth rate per share is -289.47% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.99
EBITDA per share
$4.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
UFCS
P/E Ratio:
11.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.97
P/E ratio is -48.10% lower than main peers & is -34.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $61.59
UFCS is -52.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.24
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -69.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.88
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -25.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
191.97%
Net income growth rate is -757.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.17%
Dividend yeild: 2.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.61
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -4.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.16
2021-12-02--$0.15
2021-06-03--$0.15
2022-03-03--$0.15
2021-09-02--$0.15
2021-03-04--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -110.39% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
29.98
Interest coverage ratio is 522.68% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.439
Statistical significance of correlation:
UFCS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is -26.94% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
10.22
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.088
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UFCS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
17.11%
Effective tax rate is -14.40% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 32.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is 100.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
930.5K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
110.0K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
83.1K
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.8K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UFCS
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (XNAS:TCPC)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.98M
6.61M
119.46M
-
90.24M
108.87M
18.62M
90.24M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.67M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1234.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
979.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 49925.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 25292.00K
Other Working Capital:
247.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.76M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.60M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 84539.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
109.52M
275.00K
109.80M
484.55M
-
-
-
138.72M
-
-
1.85B
-
-
1.99B
4.92B
2.93B
-
-
-
-
-
-
50.00M
-
57.25M
2.15B
2.09B
25.00K
645.97M
- 14372.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
901.61M
835.63M
2.93B
1.85B
50.00M
- 59522.0K
66.99M
- 2510.00K
- 20061.00K
-
-
- 349.00K
- 3767.00K
-
- 4116.00K
-
- 22582.00K
109.52M
132.10M
1.60M
- 2510.00K
- 915.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UFCS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.43
$69.85
$70.07
$70.29
$70.52