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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
United Community Banks, Inc. (XNAS:UCBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UCBI
Name:
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC. (XNAS:UCBI)
Sector:
200.48M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. H. Lynn Harton
Total Employees:
2,822
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -811.72% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC.(UCBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.31
One Month Price Target:
$32.5
Six Month Price Target :
$33.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.35
This week:
$27.92
This month :
$23.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.92%
-18.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.42
$37.24
$23.20
$27.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.99
$28.73
$29.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UCBI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.45%
Comparison:
UCBI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 17.75% higher than the industry
& is -36.54% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UCBI
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.04%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.45% above industry average
Classification:
UCBI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
UCBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.99%
Weekly Volatility:
6.68%
Monthly Volatility:
13.35%
Yearly Volatility:
46.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -54.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.08%
Weekly VaR:
-13.59%
Monthly VaR:
-27.19%
How Much Can the price of
UCBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.18%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.73
This translates to price declining to:
$1.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UCBI is a 91.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UCBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.811
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.147
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.961
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.603
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.923
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.988
Beta is 6.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 9.01% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.44%
Sustainable growth rate is 3.39% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.021
Alpha is 84.60% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 136% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UCBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 6.10% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.71%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.71%
WACC is -10.37% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.27
Annual revenue growth rate is -20.06% below industry average
EPS:
$2.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -27.32% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 69.73%
Equity growth rate per share is 80.08% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$3.06
EBITDA per share
$3.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
UCBI
P/E Ratio:
13.39
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
68.85
P/E ratio is -80.55% lower than main peers & is 7.90% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $32.14
UCBI is 0.53% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.81
Price to sales ratio is 12.43% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.27
Price to free cash flow: 7.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -58.38% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
55.55%
Net income growth rate is 0.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.03%
Dividend yeild: 2.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.58%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.21
2021-12-14--$0.20
2021-06-14--$0.19
2022-03-14--$0.21
2021-09-14--$0.20
2021-03-12--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -93.29% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-58.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.20% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.42
Interest coverage ratio is 1399.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-24.34%
Annual debt growth is -7787% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.526
Statistical significance of correlation:
UCBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 5.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
5.952
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.175
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UCBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.33%
Effective tax rate is 3.65% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -24.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
252.6K
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
121.3K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
86.5K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
71.0K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.6M
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UCBI
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRP)
EASTERN BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EBC)
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP. (XNAS:INDB)
PACIFIC PREMIER BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:PPBI)
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC. (XNAS:FHB)
LIVE OAK BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:LOB)
HOME BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:HOMB)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
712.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
197.88M
-
298.82M
305.02M
6.20M
- 81587.00K
4.45M
608.31M
27.55M
411.00K
342.27M
-
244.11M
314.31M
70.20M
244.11M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.45M
Differed Income Tax :
2.31M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.49M
Change in Working Capital :
136.21M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
200.48M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1150331.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.90B
3.91B
5.81B
-
-
- 3907232.00K
1.91B
283.56M
-
784.28M
6.41B
-
-
7.48B
29.95B
24.37B
-
-
-
-
-
-
324.23M
-
324.23M
22.00B
21.68B
106.03M
354.41M
- 175341.0K
2.31B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.70B
24.37B
10.32B
324.23M
- 1580552.0K
431.55M
- 183582.00K
- 902365.00K
-
-
-
- 72.00K
290.12M
290.04M
-
- 411846.00K
1.91B
2.32B
200.48M
-
200.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UCBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.76
$85.13
$91.14
$97.58
$104.47