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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
United Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:UBSI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UBSI
Name:
UNITED BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:UBSI)
Sector:
280.10M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Richard Adams
Total Employees:
2,966
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -584.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITED BANKSHARES, INC.(UBSI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.42
One Month Price Target:
$36.65
Six Month Price Target :
$37.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.33
This week:
$31.75
This month :
$27.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
134.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.22%
-14.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.11
$41.68
$26.73
$31.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.29
$32.59
$33.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UBSI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.87%
Comparison:
UBSI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -29.17% lower than the industry
& is -61.83% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UBSI
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.67%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -26.84% below industry average
Classification:
UBSI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
UBSI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.81%
Weekly Volatility:
6.27%
Monthly Volatility:
12.55%
Yearly Volatility:
43.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.73%
Weekly VaR:
-12.81%
Monthly VaR:
-25.62%
How Much Can the price of
UBSI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.31
This translates to price declining to:
$4.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UBSI is a 80.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UBSI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.738
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.043
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.964
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.576
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.866
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.869
Beta is 28.13% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 15.56% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.10%
Sustainable growth rate is -55.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.028
Alpha is -340.91% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -178% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UBSI
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 10.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.33%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.74%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.74%
WACC is -8.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.07
Annual revenue growth rate is -24.09% below industry average
EPS:
$2.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.66%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -69.59% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 10.37%
Equity growth rate per share is -73.23% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.68
EBITDA per share
$3.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
UBSI
P/E Ratio:
14.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.43
P/E ratio is -46.69% lower than main peers & is 13.55% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $32.39
UBSI is 12.45% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.09
Price to sales ratio is 19.10% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.07
Price to free cash flow: 6.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is -71.25% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.33%
Net income growth rate is -55.82% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.62%
Dividend yeild: 3.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.43
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.36
2021-12-01--$0.36
2021-06-10--$0.35
2022-03-10--$0.36
2021-09-09--$0.35
2021-03-11--$0.35
Dividend growth rate is -98.77% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-38.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.9
Interest coverage ratio is 1094.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-16.28%
Annual debt growth is -5240% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.521
Statistical significance of correlation:
UBSI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
4.2
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.19
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UBSI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.38%
Effective tax rate is -5.44% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -37.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
324.5K
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
163.5K
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
115.5K
Each employee generates -18% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
94.4K
Each employee generates 14% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates 14% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UBSI
UMB Financial Corporation (XNAS:UMBF)
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT UNT (XNAS:HIIIU)
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
ACE CONVERGENCE ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:ACEVU)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOMP)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
BETTER WORLD ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:BWACU)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
962.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
362.26M
362.26M
-
-
-
792.26M
48.98M
5.82M
484.95M
-
342.50M
430.15M
87.65M
342.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
283.61M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
283.61M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3509.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1089405.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.80B
4.76B
7.56B
66.53M
-
-
-
277.26M
1.89B
23.09M
5.02B
-
-
7.21B
36.58B
29.37B
-
136.37M
-
-
-
136.37M
898.91M
-
898.91M
25.53B
24.77B
354.46M
1.42B
- 141692.0K
2.96B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
4.60B
29.37B
9.78B
1.04B
- 1766765.0K
153.07M
- 363754.00K
- 1303597.00K
-
-
- 26061.00K
- 46655.00K
137.63M
64.91M
-
- 955077.00K
2.80B
3.76B
283.61M
- 3509.00K
280.10M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UBSI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.35
$55.76
$59.93
$64.41
$69.24