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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:UAL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UAL
Name:
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UAL)
Sector:
1.00B
Industry:
Airlines
CEO:
Mr. Oscar Munoz
Total Employees:
91,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -73.86% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.(UAL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AIRLINES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.31
One Month Price Target:
$35.56
Six Month Price Target :
$36.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.9
This week:
$27.69
This month :
$20.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.54B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
326.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.71%
-30.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.14
$43.96
$19.48
$26.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.09
$28.97
$30.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UAL
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.62%
Comparison:
UAL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 13.99% higher than the industry
& is -127.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UAL
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.41%
Yearly returns:
-3.24%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.39% above industry average
Classification:
UAL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
UAL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.69%
Weekly Volatility:
10.49%
Monthly Volatility:
20.98%
Yearly Volatility:
72.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.66%
Weekly VaR:
-21.59%
Monthly VaR:
-43.18%
How Much Can the price of
UAL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.74
This translates to price declining to:
$5.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UAL is a 204.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 161.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UAL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.829
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.172
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.15
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.147
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.048
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.446
Beta is -11.92% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.438
Beta is -11.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.167
Alpha is 3.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1066% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UAL
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is -8.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.36%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.36%
WACC is -15.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$88.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.18
Annual revenue growth rate is 81.74% above the industry average
EPS:
-$6.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.86
-
-
Debt per share
$107.17
EBITDA per share
-$2.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
UAL
P/E Ratio:
8.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.61
P/E ratio is -69.33% lower than main peers & is -72.39% lower than the industry
-
UAL is -118.10% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.4
Price to sales ratio is -62.50% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.18
Price to free cash flow: 12.36
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-179.85%
Net income growth rate is 58.74% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
966.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
555.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -23.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.56
Interest coverage ratio is -134.43% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
20.20%
Annual debt growth is 206% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
UAL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.536
Stock price is 0.27% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.536
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.117
Kurtosis
7.082
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.076
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UAL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
35%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.51%
Operating profit margin is 3067.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
35%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.44%
Effective tax rate is -8.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-54.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is 8312.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is -2848.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -15.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-10.8
Cash conversion cycle is -121.18% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
317.8K
Each employee generates 2% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 10.1K
Each employee generates -153% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 21.8K
Each employee generates 383% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.0K
Each employee generates 302% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
509.1K
Each employee generates 302% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UAL
BNGOW
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
AMERCO (XNAS:UHAL)
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HTZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
28.98B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.17B
2.81B
-
-
818.00M
818.00M
2.80B
3.62B
34.00M
1.64B
-
- 917000.00K
- 1017000.00K
- 1984000.00K
- 2558000.00K
- 574000.00K
- 1984000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.41B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.41B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 156000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
18.47B
211.00M
18.68B
2.06B
1.07B
803.00M
22.61B
36.46B
4.53B
2.79B
1.40B
1.03B
214.00M
46.43B
-
69.04B
2.97B
3.60B
-
11.42B
3.81B
21.79B
35.02B
4.71B
43.63B
-
65.41B
4.00M
- 844000.00K
- 937000.0K
5.40B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
29.78B
3.62B
69.04B
1.61B
38.61B
20.1B
62.00M
- 336000.00K
- 430000.00K
- 783000.00K
-
-
-
- 2000.00K
- 785000.00K
-
190.00M
18.72B
18.53B
1.41B
- 402000.00K
1.00B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UAL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.45
$41.74
$45.32
$49.19
$53.41