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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Under Armour, Inc. (XNYS:UA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UA
Name:
UNDER ARMOUR, INC. (XNYS:UA)
Sector:
- 361366.00K
Industry:
Apparel Manufacturing
CEO:
Mr. Patrik Frisk
Total Employees:
7,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 49.61% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UNDER ARMOUR, INC.(UA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.41
One Month Price Target:
$7.47
Six Month Price Target :
$7.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.87
This week:
$6.2
This month :
$4.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.57B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
455.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.93%
-25.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.92
$8.79
$4.90
$6.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.18
$6.39
$6.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UA
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.99%
Comparison:
UA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 121.97% higher than the industry
& is -187.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UA
Daily returns:
-0.06%
Weekly returns:
-0.31%
Monthly returns:
-1.22%
Yearly returns:
-3.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 307.47% above industry average
Classification:
UA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
UA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.88%
Monthly Volatility:
15.75%
Yearly Volatility:
54.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.29%
Weekly VaR:
-16.31%
Monthly VaR:
-32.62%
How Much Can the price of
UA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.22
This translates to price declining to:
$1.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UA is a 130.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 97.25% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.99% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.881
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.246
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.799
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.012
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.934
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.609
Beta is -16.48% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.537
Beta is -12.55% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -3.42% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.270
Alpha is 56.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1722% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UA
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is -9.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.36%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.36%
WACC is -4.82% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.76% below industry average
EPS:
$0.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
56.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 207.24% higher than the Apparel Manufacturing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.82
-
-
Debt per share
$2.95
EBITDA per share
$0.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
UA
P/E Ratio:
15.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.41
P/E ratio is 51.50% higher than main peers & is -31.67% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $10.84
UA is -31.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.59
Price to sales ratio is -69.78% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.95
Price to free cash flow: 9.09
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-863.46%
Net income growth rate is -29.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
77.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
19.21%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
64.97
Interest coverage ratio is -66.82% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.00%
Annual debt growth is 7% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.583
Statistical significance of correlation:
UA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is 1.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
6.688
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.036
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.82%
Operating profit margin is -1.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.00%
Effective tax rate is -62.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -6.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.18
Current ratio is -4.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-16.9
Cash conversion cycle is -124.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
806.7K
Each employee generates 46% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
56.3K
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
31.4K
Each employee generates -22% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 50.9K
Each employee generates 335% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
228.2K
Each employee generates 335% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UA
UNDER ARMOUR, INC. (XNYS:UAA)
RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION (XNYS:RL)
TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:TPX)
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION (XNYS:QS)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PAG)
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:WH)
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.73B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.89B
2.84B
-
-
2.41B
-
-
2.41B
-
6.15M
140.59M
399.82M
333.44M
222.70M
253.14M
30.37M
222.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.96M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2500.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.76M
Change in Working Capital :
- 306057.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 131988.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 321443.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 39923.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.01B
-
1.01B
702.20M
824.46M
297.03M
2.83B
1.02B
491.51M
10.58M
-
20.14M
76.02M
1.62B
-
4.45B
560.33M
-
-
-
738.26M
1.30B
1.34B
84.01M
1.43B
-
2.72B
-
968.22M
-
760.73M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.30B
1.73B
4.45B
-
1.34B
332.1M
-
-
- 39923.00K
-
-
- 300000.00K
-
- 10512.00K
- 310512.00K
11.13M
- 660744.00K
1.02B
1.68B
- 321443.00K
- 39923.00K
- 361366.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.87
$10.76
$11.73
$12.79
$13.95