top of page

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (XNAS:UMPQ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

UMPQ

Name:

UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:UMPQ)

Sector:

271.59M

Industry:

Banks�Regional

CEO:

Mr. Cort O'Haver

Total Employees:

4,000

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

A

Technological advancement compared to industry is 120.97% higher

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION(UMPQ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

17.39

One Month Price Target:

$17.48

Six Month Price Target :

$17.94

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$18.5

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$17.31

Price Upper limit ($) :

$17.49

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$16.35

                                                               This week:

$15.05

                                                        This month :

$12.72

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

3.69B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

217.05M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

14.89%

-18.45%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$22.24

$20.01

$12.54

$14.77

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$19.29

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$18.82

$15.48

$15.96

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

UMPQ

Sharpe Ratio:

1.37%

Comparison:

UMPQ, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 11.41% higher than the industry

& is -39.95% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

UMPQ

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.25%

Monthly returns:

0.98%

Yearly returns:

10.91%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.23% above industry average

Classification:

UMPQ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.98

Statistical test of Returns:

UMPQ has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.95%

Weekly Volatility:

6.59%

Monthly Volatility:

13.19%

Yearly Volatility:

45.68%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.05%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.47% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-6.01%

Weekly VaR:

-13.43%

Monthly VaR:

-26.86%

How Much Can the price of

UMPQ

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-23%

Worst case (decline):

-93.05%

This translates to price declining to:

$13.36

This translates to price declining to:

$1.21

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

UMPQ is a 89.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.22% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

UMPQ

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.716

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.013

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.828

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.604

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.858

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.282

Beta is -26.14% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

0.964

Beta is -1.71% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

8.73%

Sustainable growth rate is -4.37% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.022

Alpha is 87.07% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 138% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

UMPQ

Equity cost of capital:

0.096

Equity cost of capital is -1.16% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

8.42%

Before-tax cost of debt:

6.78%

After-tax cost of debt:

5.35%

Overall debt rating:

Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

5.35%

WACC is -16.72% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$5.78

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

1.45

Annual revenue growth rate is -83.58% below industry average

EPS:

$1.84

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

5.86%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -51.25% lower than the Banks�Regional industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$1.83

Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.68%

Equity growth rate per share is -85.34% lower than the industry

Debt per share

$2.31

EBITDA per share

$2.74

Valuation Analysis Today of

UMPQ

P/E Ratio:

10.35

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

512.49

P/E ratio is -97.98% lower than main peers & is -16.62% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $22.83

UMPQ is -23.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $167.51

Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.72

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

3.01

Price to sales ratio is -29.64% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

1.45

Price to free cash flow: 9.52

Price to free cash flow ratio is -71.56% lower than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

32.93%

Net income growth rate is -40.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 11.28%

Dividend yeild: 4.83%

Previous Dividend: $0.21

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21

Previous Dividend: $0.84

-

-

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%

Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022

Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022

Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022

Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022

Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022

Dividend History:

2022-05-13--$0.21

2021-11-18--$0.21

2021-05-17--$0.21

2022-02-14--$0.21

2021-08-19--$0.21

2021-02-12--$0.21

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

19.24%

Net debt to equity ratio:

-82.98%

Debt to assets ratio:

1.64%

Net debt to assets ratio:

-7.06%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.02% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

17.52

Interest coverage ratio is 2013.51% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-60.70%

Annual debt growth is -19265% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.517

Statistical significance of correlation:

UMPQ has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.501

Stock price is 3.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.501

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.022

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.037

Kurtosis 

4.704

Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.047

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

UMPQ

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

0.00%

-

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Effective Tax Rate:

24.82%

Effective tax rate is 15.20% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

15.48%

Return on equity (ROE) is 29.78% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

1.32%

Return on assets (ROA) is -42.82% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.0x

Current Ratio:

0

-

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

0

-

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.2 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

0.61%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

313.6K

Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

148.9K

Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

100.9K

Each employee generates -29% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

67.9K

Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

1.0M

Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

UMPQ

CFACU

TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)

GORES METROPOULOS II UNT (XNAS:GMIIU)

Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAP)

GREENROSE ACQUISITION UNT (OTCM:GNRSU)

INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)

ITIQUIRA ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:ITQRU)

HOME BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:HOMB)

GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�4%

Buy�17%