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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Umpqua Holdings Corporation (XNAS:UMPQ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UMPQ
Name:
UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:UMPQ)
Sector:
271.59M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Cort O'Haver
Total Employees:
4,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 120.97% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION(UMPQ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.39
One Month Price Target:
$17.48
Six Month Price Target :
$17.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.35
This week:
$15.05
This month :
$12.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
217.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.89%
-18.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.24
$20.01
$12.54
$14.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.82
$15.48
$15.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UMPQ
Sharpe Ratio:
1.37%
Comparison:
UMPQ, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 11.41% higher than the industry
& is -39.95% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UMPQ
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
0.98%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.23% above industry average
Classification:
UMPQ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
UMPQ has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.95%
Weekly Volatility:
6.59%
Monthly Volatility:
13.19%
Yearly Volatility:
45.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.05%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.01%
Weekly VaR:
-13.43%
Monthly VaR:
-26.86%
How Much Can the price of
UMPQ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.36
This translates to price declining to:
$1.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UMPQ is a 89.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UMPQ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.716
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.013
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.828
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.604
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.858
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.282
Beta is -26.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -1.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.73%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.37% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.022
Alpha is 87.07% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 138% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UMPQ
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -1.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.35%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.35%
WACC is -16.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.58% below industry average
EPS:
$1.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -51.25% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.83
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.68%
Equity growth rate per share is -85.34% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.31
EBITDA per share
$2.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
UMPQ
P/E Ratio:
10.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
512.49
P/E ratio is -97.98% lower than main peers & is -16.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $22.83
UMPQ is -23.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $167.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.72
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.01
Price to sales ratio is -29.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
Price to free cash flow: 9.52
Price to free cash flow ratio is -71.56% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.93%
Net income growth rate is -40.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.28%
Dividend yeild: 4.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.84
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.21
2021-11-18--$0.21
2021-05-17--$0.21
2022-02-14--$0.21
2021-08-19--$0.21
2021-02-12--$0.21
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-82.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.52
Interest coverage ratio is 2013.51% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-60.70%
Annual debt growth is -19265% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.517
Statistical significance of correlation:
UMPQ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 3.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
4.704
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.047
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UMPQ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.82%
Effective tax rate is 15.20% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is 29.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
313.6K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
148.9K
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
100.9K
Each employee generates -29% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
67.9K
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.0M
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UMPQ
CFACU
TRUPANION, INC. (XNAS:TRUP)
GORES METROPOULOS II UNT (XNAS:GMIIU)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAP)
GREENROSE ACQUISITION UNT (OTCM:GNRSU)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
ITIQUIRA ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:ITQRU)
HOME BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:HOMB)
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
308.73M
-
526.47M
532.57M
6.10M
-
-
960.17M
34.00M
24.48M
595.49M
-
403.72M
537.02M
133.30M
403.72M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.61M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.45M
Change in Working Capital :
170.01M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.09M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
275.33M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 131869.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.67B
3.64B
6.30B
1.48B
-
-
-
254.70M
-
173.62M
3.72B
-
-
4.15B
34.79B
30.64B
-
-
-
-
-
-
501.73M
-
501.73M
28.53B
28.03B
3.44B
- 651912.00K
- 183756.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.61B
30.64B
7.36B
501.73M
- 2163711.0K
126.01M
- 428281.00K
- 434139.00K
-
-
- 4037.00K
- 45532.00K
112.20M
62.63M
-
- 96185.00K
2.67B
2.76B
275.33M
- 3736.00K
271.59M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UMPQ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.59
$283.11
$301.13
$320.29
$340.68