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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Umb Financial Corporation (XNAS:UMBF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UMBF
Name:
UMB Financial Corporation (XNAS:UMBF)
Sector:
187.41M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. J. Mariner Kemper
Total Employees:
3,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -159.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UMB FINANCIAL CORPORATION(UMBF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.88
One Month Price Target:
$89.33
Six Month Price Target :
$91.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$88.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$89.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$84.15
This week:
$78.3
This month :
$67.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.96%
-17.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$110.83
$100.70
$66.93
$77.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$97.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.24
$80.33
$82.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UMBF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.50%
Comparison:
UMBF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 103.70% higher than the industry
& ratio is 9.79% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UMBF
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.49%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 64.13% above industry average
Classification:
UMBF, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
UMBF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.75%
Yearly Volatility:
40.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.32%
Weekly VaR:
-11.90%
Monthly VaR:
-23.81%
How Much Can the price of
UMBF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.47%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.93
This translates to price declining to:
$15.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UMBF is a 68.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.95% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.99% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UMBF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.759
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.073
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.833
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.692
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.819
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.905
Beta is -0.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -6.53% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.30%
Sustainable growth rate is 1.92% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.086
Alpha is 640.29% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 547% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UMBF
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -4.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
16.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
13.24%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
13.24%
WACC is -18.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -0.80% below industry average
EPS:
$7.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 9.87% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.38%
Equity growth rate per share is -55.11% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.63
EBITDA per share
$11.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
UMBF
P/E Ratio:
10.65
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.12
P/E ratio is -60.71% lower than main peers & is -14.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $93.19
UMBF is -4.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.00
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.51
Price to sales ratio is -17.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.56
Price to free cash flow: 7.53
Price to free cash flow ratio is 58.32% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
85.05%
Net income growth rate is 54.43% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.89%
Dividend yeild: 1.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.89%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.37
2021-12-09--$0.37
2021-06-09--$0.32
2022-03-09--$0.37
2021-09-09--$0.37
2021-03-09--$0.32
Dividend growth rate is -91.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-234.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.97
Interest coverage ratio is 1344.46% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.72%
Annual debt growth is 128% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.631
Statistical significance of correlation:
UMBF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 26.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
4.666
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.186
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UMBF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
17.72%
Effective tax rate is -17.75% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is 11.73% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.90%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
346.4K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
154.6K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
103.8K
Each employee generates -27% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
53.1K
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.9M
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UMBF
UNITED BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:UBSI)
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT UNT (XNAS:HIIIU)
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOMP)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
ACE CONVERGENCE ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:ACEVU)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
BETTER WORLD ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:BWACU)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.22B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
534.98M
556.10M
21.12M
-
-
877.34M
45.58M
54.86M
545.69M
-
366.34M
445.25M
78.91M
366.34M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.15M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1023.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.16M
Change in Working Capital :
50.38M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
119.01M
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.42M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
196.05M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8643.00K
Net Acquisitions:
265.64M
Purchases of Investments:
- 895542.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
6.71B
8.55B
15.26B
396.34M
-
-
-
264.52M
182.23M
15.69M
13.46B
-
-
13.93B
54.53B
40.61B
-
-
-
-
-
-
272.04M
-
272.04M
38.13B
37.86B
55.06M
2.27B
- 343128.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.75B
40.61B
22.01B
272.04M
- 6441677.0K
519.12M
- 695004.00K
- 814435.00K
-
-
- 22487.00K
- 17917.00K
- 1869119.00K
- 1909523.00K
-
- 2527906.00K
6.69B
9.21B
196.05M
- 8643.00K
187.41M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UMBF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$94.73
$147.62
$156.56
$166.04
$176.09