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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (XNAS:RARE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
RARE
Name:
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:RARE)
Sector:
- 179705.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Emil Kakkis
Total Employees:
1,119
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 19.64% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC.(RARE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.75
One Month Price Target:
$48.08
Six Month Price Target :
$49.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.12
This week:
$39.64
This month :
$31.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.29B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
70.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.39%
-22.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.58
$56.83
$30.92
$38.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.65
$41.17
$42.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
RARE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.24%
Comparison:
RARE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 14.96% higher than the industry
& is -1.93% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
RARE
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.85%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -11.94% below industry average
Classification:
RARE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
RARE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.74%
Weekly Volatility:
8.37%
Monthly Volatility:
16.75%
Yearly Volatility:
58.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.60%
Weekly VaR:
-16.99%
Monthly VaR:
-33.98%
How Much Can the price of
RARE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.91
This translates to price declining to:
$7.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
RARE is a 139.82% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
RARE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.748
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.057
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.183
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.757
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.812
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.032
Beta is 18.71% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 6.38% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.107
Alpha is -24.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 679% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
RARE
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is 4.56% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
70.08%
After-tax cost of debt:
55.36%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
55.36%
WACC is 41.01% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -20.00% below industry average
EPS:
-$6.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.01%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -120.10% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.40
EBITDA per share
-$6.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
RARE
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
246.84
-
-
RARE is -107.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.07
Price to sales ratio is -75.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.2
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
87.95%
Net income growth rate is 24.61% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-15.49
Interest coverage ratio is -86.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.334
Statistical significance of correlation:
RARE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -1.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.086
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.187
Kurtosis
4.209
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.026
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
RARE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-124.06%
Operating profit margin is -71.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.26%
Effective tax rate is -104.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-59.04%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.98% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-33.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 66.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.23
Current ratio is -47.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-270
Cash conversion cycle is -150.65% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
296.6K
Each employee generates -82% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 382.0K
Each employee generates -199% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 420.2K
Each employee generates -428% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 160.6K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
604.6K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -675.41% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
RARE
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:DNLI)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
CRISPR Therapeutics Ltd (XNAS:CRSP)
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
AMEDISYS, INC. (XNAS:AMED)
HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HALO)
ABCAM PLC (XNAS:ABCM)
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:BEAM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
331.95M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
16.92M
315.03M
492.79M
-
234.04M
-
-
726.83M
1.78M
27.59M
13.96M
- 427433.00K
- 411800.00K
- 470204.00K
- 468981.00K
1.22M
- 470204.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.09M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
29.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11689.00K
Accounts Receivables:
33.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3209.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 117521.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 32184.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 206168.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
153.99M
444.33M
598.32M
28.37M
17.81M
63.02M
707.52M
209.77M
44.41M
159.99M
241.12M
-
21.22M
676.51M
-
1.38B
23.69M
11.32M
-
5.87M
126.36M
167.23M
28.04M
359.03M
420.37M
-
587.61M
70.00K
- 2225921.00K
- 6554.0K
3.03B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
743.75M
796.42M
1.38B
685.46M
39.37M
- 114622.0K
228.41M
- 27422.00K
- 37362.00K
-
-
-
-
1.61M
1.61M
- 108.00K
- 153379.00K
156.21M
309.59M
- 117521.00K
- 62184.00K
- 179705.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
RARE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.84
$56.11
$60.73
$65.73
$71.14